Abstract The short term effect of multiple air pollutants e.g. aerosols (black carbon, BC; PM2.5 and PM10) and trace gases (NO2, SO2, and O3) on all-cause mortality was systematically investigated in a typical urban pollution hotspot over central Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). To our knowledge, this would be the first report of mortality estimates for exposure to BC aerosols and multiple trace gases over South Asia. Daily all-cause mortality and ambient air quality were analyzed from 2009 to 2016 following a semiparametric quasi-Poisson regression model adjusting mean temperature (Tmean), relative humidity (RH), and long term time trend (Time) as potential confounders. Single pollutant model clearly established the significant impact of BC aerosols (against 10-unit increase in pollutant; 4.95%, 95% CI: 2.16–7.74), NO2 (2.38%, 95% CI: 0.88–3.87%) and PM2.5 exposure (1.06%, 95% CI: 0.45–1.66%) on mortality. The inclusion of co-pollutants in the multi-pollutant model increased the individual mortality risks for BC aerosols (7.3%). Mortality estimates were further stratified considering different effect modifiers viz. sex, age, place of death, and season. Almost in all the cases statistically insignificant differences in effect modification were noted for all the pollutants except PM10. We also explored a distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate the lag effect and all the pollutants showed significant lag up to 3 days while BC showed lag effect up to 5 days. The exposure-response curves for individual air pollutants were mostly linear, while a considerable increase in mortality was noted for an exposure >15 μg m−3 for BC aerosols and >60 μg m−3 for PM2.5. The effect estimates of air pollutants during haze and no-haze days were also defined. During haze days, mortality rose to 6.11% and 3.06% for each 10-unit increase in BC and NO2 exposure, respectively. Significant effect of BC aerosol exposure on human mortality was established which reaffirms its inclusion as a potential health regulator for epidemiological studies.

中文翻译：

---

印度-恒河平原中部城市污染热点地区气溶胶、微量气体和黑碳与死亡率的关联

摘要 在中部地区典型的城市污染热点地区系统地研究了多种空气污染物，例如气溶胶（黑碳、BC；PM2.5 和 PM10）和微量气体（NO2、SO2 和 O3）对全因死亡率的短期影响。印度恒河平原 (IGP)。据我们所知，这将是南亚暴露于 BC 气溶胶和多种痕量气体的死亡率估计的第一份报告。根据调整平均温度 (Tmean)、相对湿度 (RH) 和长期时间趋势 (Time) 作为潜在混杂因素的半参数准泊松回归模型，分析了 2009 年至 2016 年的每日全因死亡率和环境空气质量。单一污染物模型明确确定了 BC 气溶胶（污染物增加 10 个单位；4.95%、95% CI：2.16-7.74）、NO2（2.38%、95% CI：0.88-3）的显着影响。87%）和 PM2.5 暴露（1.06%，95% CI：0.45–1.66%）对死亡率的影响。在多污染物模型中包含共同污染物增加了 BC 气溶胶的个体死亡风险 (7.3%)。考虑到不同的效果修饰符，即对死亡率估计进行了进一步分层。性别、年龄、死亡地点和季节。几乎在所有情况下，除 PM10 外的所有污染物在影响修改方面的差异均无统计学意义。我们还探索了一个分布式滞后非线性模型来估计滞后效应，所有污染物都表现出长达 3 天的显着滞后，而 BC 表现出长达 5 天的滞后效应。单个空气污染物的暴露-反应曲线大多是线性的，而对于 BC 气溶胶 >15 μg m-3 和 PM2.5 > 60 μg m-3 的暴露，死亡率显着增加。还定义了雾霾天和无雾霾天期间空气污染物的影响估计值。在雾霾天，BC 和 NO2 暴露每增加 10 个单位，死亡率分别上升到 6.11% 和 3.06%。BC 气溶胶暴露对人类死亡率的显着影响已被确定，这再次证实了其作为流行病学研究的潜在健康调节剂。