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Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events
Nature Communications ( IF 14.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-24 , DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19639-3
Nina N. Ridder , Andy J. Pitman , Seth Westra , Anna Ukkola , Hong X. Do , Margot Bador , Annette L. Hirsch , Jason P. Evans , Alejandro Di Luca , Jakob Zscheischler

Compound events (CEs) are weather and climate events that result from multiple hazards or drivers with the potential to cause severe socio-economic impacts. Compared with isolated hazards, the multiple hazards/drivers associated with CEs can lead to higher economic losses and death tolls. Here, we provide the first analysis of multiple multivariate CEs potentially causing high-impact floods, droughts, and fires. Using observations and reanalysis data during 1980–2014, we analyse 27 hazard pairs and provide the first spatial estimates of their occurrences on the global scale. We identify hotspots of multivariate CEs including many socio-economically important regions such as North America, Russia and western Europe. We analyse the relative importance of different multivariate CEs in six continental regions to highlight CEs posing the highest risk. Our results provide initial guidance to assess the regional risk of CE events and an observationally-based dataset to aid evaluation of climate models for simulating multivariate CEs.



中文翻译:

复合事件发生的全球热点

复合事件(CE)是由多种危害或驱动因素引起的天气和气候事件,有可能造成严重的社会经济影响。与孤立的危害相比,与CE相关的多种危害/驱动因素会导致更高的经济损失和死亡人数。在这里,我们对可能引起高冲击洪水,干旱和火灾的多个多元CE进行了首次分析。利用1980年至2014年期间的观测资料和再分析数据,我们分析了27个灾害对,并提供了其在全球范围内发生的首次空间估计。我们确定了多元CE的热点,包括许多社会经济上重要的地区,例如北美,俄罗斯和西欧。我们分析了六个大陆地区不同多元CE的相对重要性,以突出显示风险最高的CE。

更新日期:2020-11-25
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