Person-borne improvised explosive devices (PBIEDs) are often used in terrorist attacks in Western countries. This study aims to predict the trajectories of PBIED fragments and the subsequent safety risks for people exposed to this hazard. An explosive field test with a typical PBIED composed of a plastic explosive charge and steel nut enhancements was performed to record initial fragment behaviour, including positions, velocity, and trajectory angles. These data were used to predict the full trajectory of PBIED fragments using a probabilistic analysis. In the probabilistic analyses a probability of fatality or serious injury was computed. Based on the results presented, many practical conclusions can be drawn, for instance, regarding safe evacuation distances if a person were exposed to a suspected PBIED.

个人携带的简易爆炸装置 (PBIED) 经常用于西方国家的恐怖袭击。本研究旨在预测 PBIED 碎片的轨迹以及暴露于这种危险的人的后续安全风险。使用由塑料炸药装药和钢螺母增强件组成的典型 PBIED 进行爆炸现场测试，以记录初始碎片行为，包括位置、速度和弹道角度。这些数据用于使用概率分析预测 PBIED 碎片的完整轨迹。在概率分析中，计算了死亡或严重伤害的概率。根据所提供的结果，可以得出许多实际结论，例如，如果一个人暴露于疑似 PBIED，则有关安全疏散距离。