In an earthquake event, the combination of a strong mainshock and damaging aftershocks is often the cause of severe structural damages and/or high death tolls. The objective of this paper is to provide estimation for the probability of such extreme events where the mainshock and the largest aftershocks exceed certain thresholds. Two approaches are illustrated and compared – a parametric approach based on previously observed stochastic laws in earthquake data, and a non-parametric approach based on bivariate extreme value theory. We analyze the earthquake data from the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkey during 1965–2018 and show that the two approaches provide unifying results.

在地震事件中，强烈的主震和破坏性余震的结合通常会导致严重的结构损坏和/或高死亡人数。本文的目的是对主震和最大余震超过某些阈值的此类极端事件的可能性进行估算。说明并比较了两种方法-一种基于先前在地震数据中观察到的随机定律的参数方法，以及一种基于双变量极值理论的非参数方法。我们分析了1965-2018年土耳其北安纳托利亚断裂带（NAFZ）的地震数据，并表明这两种方法提供了统一的结果。