Upper atmospheric conditions are crucial for the safe operation of spacecraft orbiting near Earth and for communication and positioning systems using radio signals. To understand and predict the upper atmospheric conditions, which include complex variations affected by both low altitude and upper surrounding environments, we have developed a quasi-real-time and forecast simulations using a physical global model, the Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA). The GAIA simulation system provides a global distribution of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) with background atmospheric and electric distributions including a few-days prediction. The prediction accuracy for the detection of significant ionospheric storms decreases with increasing lead time, i.e., the duration of the model simulation which is not constrained by realistic input parameters. Similar characteristic variations associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are reproduced with the full or limited input of meteorological data at least the prior 3 days. This is a first step toward the usage of GAIA for space weather forecasting.

中文翻译：

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使用 GAIA 的高层大气和电离层数值预报

高层大气条件对于在地球附近轨道运行的航天器的安全运行以及使用无线电信号的通信和定位系统至关重要。为了理解和预测高层大气条件，包括受低空和高层周围环境影响的复杂变化，我们开发了一种使用物理全球模型的准实时和预测模拟，大气的地对顶模型和电离层航空（GAIA）。GAIA 模拟系统提供电离层总电子含量 (TEC) 的全球分布以及背景大气和电力分布，包括几天的预测。显着电离层风暴探测的预测精度随着提前期的增加而降低，即，不受实际输入参数限制的模型模拟持续时间。与平流层突然变暖 (SSW) 相关的类似特征变化至少在前 3 天通过完整或有限的气象数据输入重现。这是使用 GAIA 进行空间天气预报的第一步。