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Bio-energy and CO2 emission reductions: an integrated land-use and energy sector perspective
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02895-z
Nico Bauer , David Klein , Florian Humpenöder , Elmar Kriegler , Gunnar Luderer , Alexander Popp , Jessica Strefler

Biomass feedstocks can be used to substitute fossil fuels and effectively remove carbon from the atmosphere to offset residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other sectors. Both features make biomass valuable for climate change mitigation; therefore, CO2 emission mitigation leads to complex and dynamic interactions between the energy and the land-use sector via emission pricing policies and bioenergy markets. Projected bioenergy deployment depends on climate target stringency as well as assumptions about context variables such as technology development, energy and land markets as well as policies. This study investigates the intra- and intersectorial effects on physical quantities and prices by coupling models of the energy (REMIND) and land-use sector (MAgPIE) using an iterative soft-link approach. The model framework is used to investigate variations of a broad set of context variables, including the harmonized variations on bioenergy technologies of the 33rd model comparison study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on climate change mitigation and large scale bioenergy deployment. Results indicate that CO2 emission mitigation triggers strong decline of fossil fuel use and rapid growth of bioenergy deployment around midcentury (~ 150 EJ/year) reaching saturation towards end-of-century. Varying context variables leads to diverse changes on mid-century bioenergy markets and carbon pricing. For example, reducing the ability to exploit the carbon value of bioenergy increases bioenergy use to substitute fossil fuels, whereas limitations on bioenergy supply shift bioenergy use to conversion alternatives featuring higher carbon capture rates. Radical variations, like fully excluding all technologies that combine bioenergy use with carbon removal, lead to substantial intersectorial effects by increasing bioenergy demand and increased economic pressure on both sectors. More gradual variations like selective exclusion of advanced bioliquid technologies in the energy sector or changes in diets mostly lead to substantial intrasectorial reallocation effects. The results deepen our understanding of the land-energy nexus, and we discuss the importance of carefully choosing variations in sensitivity analyses to provide a balanced assessment.

中文翻译:

生物能源和二氧化碳减排:综合土地利用和能源部门的观点

生物质原料可用于替代化石燃料并有效地从大气中去除碳,以抵消化石燃料燃烧和其他部门的残余二氧化碳排放。这两个特征使生物质对减缓气候变化很有价值;因此,二氧化碳减排通过排放定价政策和生物能源市场导致能源和土地利用部门之间复杂而动态的相互作用。预计的生物能源部署取决于气候目标的严格程度以及对环境变量的假设,例如技术发展、能源和土地市场以及政策。本研究使用迭代软链接方法,通过能源 (REMIND) 和土地利用部门 (MAgPIE) 的耦合模型来研究部门内和部门间对物理量和价格的影响。该模型框架用于研究一系列广泛的背景变量的变化,包括斯坦福能源建模论坛 (EMF-33) 第 33 次模型比较研究中关于减缓气候变化和大规模生物能源部署的生物能源技术的协调变化。结果表明,二氧化碳排放减缓导致化石燃料使用量大幅下降,生物能源部署在本世纪中叶(约 150 EJ/年)快速增长,在本世纪末达到饱和。不同的环境变量导致本世纪中叶生物能源市场和碳定价的不同变化。例如,降低利用生物能源碳价值的能力会增加生物能源替代化石燃料的使用,而生物能源供应的限制将生物能源的使用转变为具有更高碳捕获率的转换替代品。彻底的变化,比如完全排除所有将生物能源使用与碳去除相结合的技术,通过增加生物能源需求和增加这两个部门的经济压力,导致重大的跨部门影响。更渐进的变化,例如在能源部门中选择性排除先进的生物液体技术或饮食变化,大多会导致重大的部门内重新分配效应。结果加深了我们对土地-能源关系的理解,我们讨论了谨慎选择敏感性分析中的变化以提供平衡评估的重要性。通过增加生物能源需求和增加两个部门的经济压力,导致重大的跨部门影响。更渐进的变化,例如在能源部门中选择性排除先进的生物液体技术或饮食变化,大多会导致重大的部门内重新分配效应。结果加深了我们对土地-能源关系的理解,我们讨论了谨慎选择敏感性分析中的变化以提供平衡评估的重要性。通过增加生物能源需求和增加两个部门的经济压力,导致重大的跨部门影响。更渐进的变化,例如在能源部门中选择性排除先进的生物液体技术或饮食变化,大多会导致重大的部门内重新分配效应。结果加深了我们对土地-能源关系的理解,我们讨论了谨慎选择敏感性分析中的变化以提供平衡评估的重要性。
更新日期:2020-11-24
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