当前位置: X-MOL 学术npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 8.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-23 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-00144-9
Nazzareno Diodato , Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist , Gianni Bellocchi

Erosive storms constitute a major natural hazard. They are frequently a source of erosional processes impacting the natural landscape with considerable economic consequences. Understanding the aggressiveness of storms (or rainfall erosivity) is essential for the awareness of environmental hazards as well as for knowledge of how to potentially control them. Reconstructing historical changes in rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires continuous time-series of short-term rainfall events. Here, we present the first homogeneous environmental (1500–2019 CE) record, with the annual resolution, of storm aggressiveness for the Po River region, northern Italy, which is to date also the longest such time-series of erosivity in the world. To generate the annual erosivity time-series, we developed a model consistent with a sample (for 1981–2015 CE) of detailed Revised Universal Soil Loss Erosion-based data obtained for the study region. The modelled data show a noticeable descending trend in rainfall erosivity together with a limited inter-annual variability until ~1708, followed by a slowly increasing erosivity trend. This trend has continued until the present day, along with a larger inter-annual variability, likely associated with an increased occurrence of short-term, cyclone-related, extreme rainfall events. These findings call for the need of strengthening the environmental support capacity of the Po River landscape and beyond in the face of predicted future changing erosive storm patterns.



中文翻译:

降雨侵蚀力的历史可预测性:重建以监测意大利北部的极端地区(1500–2019年)

侵蚀性风暴是主要的自然灾害。它们经常是侵蚀过程的来源,这些侵蚀过程会影响自然景观并产生可观的经济后果。了解风暴的侵略性(或降雨侵蚀性)对于认识环境危害以及如何潜在地控制危害至关重要。重建降雨侵蚀力的历史变化具有挑战性,因为这需要短期降雨事件的连续时间序列。在这里,我们以年分辨率显示了意大利北部波河地区的第一个均匀环境记录(公元1500–2019 CE),并具有年度分辨率,这也是迄今为止世界上此类侵蚀时间最长的时间序列。要生成年度腐蚀时间序列,我们开发了一个模型,该模型与针对研究区域获得的基于修正的基于普遍水土流失侵蚀的详细数据的样本(1981-2015年)一致。建模数据显示,降雨侵蚀力的下降趋势显着,直到1708年为止,年际变化有限,随后侵蚀力趋势缓慢增加。这种趋势一直持续到今天,年际变化较大,可能与短期,与气旋有关的极端降雨事件的发生增加有关。这些发现要求面对预期的未来不断变化的侵蚀性暴风雨,有必要加强波河及其周边地区的环境支持能力。建模数据显示,降雨侵蚀力的下降趋势显着,直到1708年为止,年际变化有限,随后侵蚀力趋势缓慢增加。这种趋势一直持续到今天,年际变化较大,可能与短期,与气旋有关的极端降雨事件的发生增加有关。这些发现要求面对预测的未来不断变化的侵蚀性暴风雨,有必要加强波河及其周边地区的环境支持能力。建模数据显示,降雨侵蚀力的下降趋势显着,直到1708年为止,年际变化有限,随后侵蚀力趋势缓慢增加。这种趋势一直持续到今天,年际变化较大,可能与短期,与气旋有关的极端降雨事件的发生增加有关。这些发现要求面对预测的未来不断变化的侵蚀性暴风雨,有必要加强波河及其周边地区的环境支持能力。可能与短期,飓风相关的极端降雨事件的发生增加有关。这些发现要求面对预测的未来不断变化的侵蚀性暴风雨,有必要加强波河及其周边地区的环境支持能力。可能与短期旋风相关的极端降雨事件的发生增加有关。这些发现要求面对预测的未来不断变化的侵蚀性暴风雨,有必要加强波河及其周边地区的环境支持能力。

更新日期:2020-11-23
down
wechat
bug