There has been longstanding interest in the evolution of positive and negative relationships among countries. An interdisciplinary field of study, Structural Balance Theory, has developed on the dynamics of such appraisal systems. However, the advancement of research in the field has been impeded by the lack of longitudinal empirical data on large-scale networks. We construct the networks of international amicable and hostile relations occurring in specific time-periods in order to study the global evolution of the network of such international appraisals. Here we present an empirical evidence on the alignment of Structural Balance Theory with the evolution of the structure of this network, and a model of the probabilistic micro-dynamics of the alterations of international appraisals during the period 1995-2018. Also remarkably, we find that the trajectory of the Frobenius norm of sequential transition probabilities, which govern the evolution of international appraisals among nations, dramatically stabilizes.

人们对国家间积极和消极关系的演变一直存在着长期的兴趣。一个跨学科的研究领域，即结构平衡理论，就是基于这种评估系统的动态发展的。然而，由于缺乏大型网络的纵向经验数据，阻碍了该领域的研究进展。我们构建在特定时间段内发生的国际友好和敌对关系网络，以研究此类国际评估网络的全球演变。在这里，我们提供结构平衡理论与该网络结构演变的一致性的经验证据，以及1995-2018年间国际评估变更的概率微观动力学模型。同样值得注意的是