The Ecosystem services (ESs), which play an important role in the balance of the natural ecosystem and social-economic development, are suffering from degradation caused by human activities and climate change. However, the manner in which the ESs respond to the land use/cover changes (LUCCs) and the climatic factors respectively remain elusive, especially in the forest-steppe ecotone, which is highly sensitive to climate change and anthroponotic activities. Based on the remote sensing data and in situ meteorological data, we comprehensively modeled and compared 4 key ESs changes caused by 3 LUCC types, land-use change fraction, and climate changes through two simple comparative experiments. Our results showed that: the Grain for the Green Project improved the mean soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and water yield but reduced the sand fixation. The cropland expansion had a positive influence on the water yield and sand fixation, but it induced a decline in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. The urbanization very likely increased the water yield and decreased soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and sand fixation. The unequal change fractions of the same land-use conversion may affect the ESs differently. The ESs changes have different responses to climate change in different landscapes due to the ecological process. The water yield could be well explained by the temperature, precipitation, radiation, and wind speed. Climate change had a stronger effect on the water yield and carbon sequestration than the land use/cover changes but sand fixation and soil conservation were more likely to be affected by LUCCs. The impact of three types of land-use changes and climate change on the ecosystem services should be considered when formulating land-use policies. This paper might aid the decision-makers in achieving ESs sustainable management and develop land-use strategies in the forest-steppe ecotone.

在自然生态系统和社会经济发展之间的平衡中发挥重要作用的生态系统服务正在遭受人类活动和气候变化导致的退化。然而，ES对土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）和气候因素的反应方式仍然难以捉摸，尤其是在森林草原过渡带中，这对气候变化和人类活动高度敏感。基于遥感数据和原地气象数据，我们通过两个简单的对比实验，对由3种LUCC类型，土地利用变化率和气候变化引起的4个关键ES的变化进行了综合建模和比较。我们的结果表明：“绿色工程粮食计划”改善了土壤平均保护，碳固存，和水的产量，但减少了固沙。农田的扩张对水的产量和固沙有积极的影响，但是却导致了土壤保持和碳固存的下降。城市化很可能增加了水的产量，减少了土壤养护，固碳和固沙。同一土地利用转换的变化率不相等可能会对生态系统产生不同的影响。由于生态过程，ESs的变化对不同景观中的气候变化有不同的响应。温度，降水，辐射和风速可以很好地解释水的产量。气候变化对水产量和碳固存的影响要比土地利用/覆被的变化更强烈，但固沙和土壤保护更容易受到土地覆盖变化的影响。在制定土地利用政策时，应考虑三种类型的土地利用变化和气候变化对生态系统服务的影响。本文可能有助于决策者实现生态系统的可持续管理，并制定森林草原过渡带的土地利用战略。