Hydropower (potential and kinetic energy) is one of the most important renewable energy sources in the world. This energy is directly dependent on water resources and the hydrological cycle. Ongoing climate changes are likely to influence the availability/amount of this energy resource. The present study explores the relationship between climate changes and river runoff, projects future runoff in both gauged and ungauged river catchments, and then assesses how these alterations may affect the future hydropower resources in Lithuania. Runoff projections of the gauged rivers were evaluated applying Swedish Department of Climate hydrological model, and runoff of ungauged river catchments were estimated by created isoline maps of specific runoff. According to an ensemble of three climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, runoff and hydroelectric energy projections were evaluated for two future periods (2021–2040, 2081–2100). The results demonstrated a decrease in future river runoff. Especially significant changes are expected according to the most pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. The projected changes are likely to bring a negative effect on hydropower production in the country. These findings could help understand what kind of benefits and challenges water resource managers may face in the future.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对测量和未测量立陶宛河流域水电资源的影响

水电（势能和动能）是世界上最重要的可再生能源之一。这种能量直接依赖于水资源和水文循环。持续的气候变化可能会影响这种能源的可用性/数量。本研究探讨气候变化与河流径流之间的关系，预测已测量和未测量河流集水区的未来径流，然后评估这些变化如何影响立陶宛未来的水电资源。应用瑞典气候部水文模型评估测量河流的径流预测，并通过创建特定径流的等值线图估计未测量河流集水区的径流。根据三个气候模型和两个代表性浓度路径情景的集合，对未来两个时期（2021-2040、2081-2100）的径流和水电能源预测进行了评估。结果表明未来河流径流减少。根据本世纪末最悲观的 RCP8.5 情景，预计会发生特别显着的变化。预计的变化可能会给该国的水电生产带来负面影响。这些发现有助于了解水资源管理者在未来可能面临什么样的好处和挑战。预计的变化可能会给该国的水电生产带来负面影响。这些发现有助于了解水资源管理者在未来可能面临什么样的好处和挑战。预计的变化可能会给该国的水电生产带来负面影响。这些发现有助于了解水资源管理者在未来可能面临什么样的好处和挑战。