ABSTRACT In the United States, planning and design efforts to generate bike-friendly environments through the greater provision of safe, low-stress bike infrastructure in our cities continue to advance. In Cambridge, Massachusetts, construction of the Grand Junction Pathway – an envisioned shared-use pathway – is at the heart of a citywide effort to enhance its active transportation system. However, a challenge – shared by many public agencies given that data on cycling activity are rarely frequently systematically gathered – is the creation of a baseline estimate of cycling demand for this planned network link. Using short-duration manual data supplemented with long-duration count data, this study employs a state-of-the-practice method for generating annual average daily bicycle trips for current bike network facilities. A statistical modelling strategy is then undertaken to forecast the volume of daily cyclists that the proposed off-street, shared-use path could expect to attract given its physical context and the socioeconomic attributes of nearby residents.

中文翻译：

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预测拟议自行车设施的自行车活动的直接需求建模方法

摘要 在美国，通过在我们的城市中更多地提供安全、低压力的自行车基础设施来创造自行车友好环境的规划和设计工作继续推进。在马萨诸塞州剑桥市，建造 Grand Junction Pathway 是一条设想中的共享通道，是全市努力加强其活跃交通系统的核心。然而，鉴于很少有系统地收集自行车活动数据，许多公共机构都面临着一个挑战——为这个计划中的网络链接创建自行车需求的基线估计。本研究使用短期手动数据并辅以长期计数数据，采用最先进的方法为当前自行车网络设施生成年平均每日自行车出行次数。