Regulating the expenditures and capital investment in safety management is one of the effective ways to improve the level of safety in port enterprises. Such spending’s aims to reduce accident losses and improve productivity but capital investment is subject to uncertainties. This paper develops a safety management model taking into account investment uncertainties in operation and management conditions. A numerical simulations analysis based on this model shows that (1) the stability of operational safety delays the investment in safety management, and the amount of investment in safety management is reduced if the stability lasts for a long time, and (2) the stability of safety management conditions also delays the investment, but policy mandatory requirements and government subsidies offset these delays.

规范安全管理支出和资金投入是提高港口企业安全水平的有效途径之一。此类支出旨在减少事故损失并提高生产率，但资本投资存在不确定性。考虑运营和管理条件下的投资不确定性，本文开发了一种安全管理模型。基于该模型的数值模拟分析表明：（1）运营安全的稳定性会延迟对​​安全管理的投资，并且如果该稳定性长期持续下去，则会减少对安全管理的投资额；（2）稳定性安全管理条件的限制也延迟了投资，但是政策强制性要求和政府补贴弥补了这些延迟。