Examining the travel time variability (TTV) of buses, passenger cars and taxis is essential to obtain reliable travel time in urban daily trips. TTV analyses of three travel modes are conducted using travel time data collected on two urban arterial roads in Xi'an City. Firstly, the TTV is evaluated using statistical indexes. The results reveal that the TTV differs from vehicle to vehicle, period to period and site to site. Secondly, the finite mixture survival model is proposed to address the heterogeneity of travel time data by decomposing the population into several sub-populations. Wasserstein distance and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test are used to further compare the sub-populations of different vehicle types during different periods on different roads. Finally, based on the model analysis, it can be found that the finite mixture survival model is an accurate tool to examine the variability by capturing the heterogeneity of travel time data. The difference among the sub-populations suggests different travel behaviours. It concludes that more diverse travel behaviours result in higher TTV. An accurate investigation on TTV is valuable for travellers’ mode choices and transportation management agencies to obtain reliable travel time information and improve traffic efficiency.

中文翻译：

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用于检查公共汽车，乘用车和出租车的城市动脉旅行时间变异性的有限混合生存模型

检查公共汽车，乘用车和出租车的旅行时间变异性（TTV）对于在城市日常旅行中获得可靠的旅行时间至关重要。使用在西安市的两条城市干道上收集的旅行时间数据对TTV进行三种旅行模式的分析。首先，使用统计指标对电视进行评估。结果表明，TTV在不同车辆，不同时期和不同地点之间有所不同。其次，提出了有限混合生存模型，通过将人口分解成几个子种群来解决旅行时间数据的异质性。Wasserstein距离和Kolmogorov–Smirnov检验用于进一步比较不同道路上不同时期不同车辆类型的亚群。最后，根据模型分析，可以发现，有限混合物生存模型是通过捕获旅行时间数据的异质性来检查变异性的准确工具。子人群之间的差异表明出行方式不同。结论是，更多样化的旅行行为会导致更高的TTV。对TTV进行准确的调查对于旅行者的模式选择和运输管理机构获取可靠的旅行时间信息并提高交通效率非常有价值。