This study illustrates the early results of on-going research started under a recent project sponsored by the United Kingdom Government Transport Department to investigate the principal factors influencing road accidents as well as develop an internet application for the prediction of road accident-related effects at different scales. In particular, accident modelling, analysis of socio–economic, land use, infrastructural and contextual factors of road safety, as well as decision-making support are the focus of this work. In particular, an application in the United Kingdom of a model framework potentially transferable to other contexts is described. This application resulted in an extensive analysis of road safety factors as well as the development of a simulation web-based platform that uses microeconometric models to estimate the frequency of road accident along with the number and severity of injuries. These models proved considerable accuracy at the national level. In the end, the potential benefit of the simulation platform for road safety decision-making is showcased on a micro-scale with an application to a medium-sized town in South East England.

中文翻译：

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通过计量经济学模型进行与事故相关的成本分析和决策支持

这项研究说明了正在进行的研究的早期结果，该研究是在英国政府运输部赞助的一个最近的项目下启动的，该项目旨在研究影响道路交通事故的主要因素，并开发一个互联网应用程序来预测不同道路交通事故的影响。秤。特别是，事故建模，社会经济分析，土地利用，道路安全的基础设施和背景因素以及决策支持是这项工作的重点。特别地，描述了在英国的潜在地可转移到其他环境的模型框架的申请。该应用程序对道路安全因素进行了广泛的分析，并开发了一个基于网络的模拟平台，该平台使用微观计量经济学模型来估计道路交通事故的频率以及伤害的数量和严重程度。这些模型在国家一级被证明具有相当高的准确性。最后，在微观规模上展示了模拟平台在道路安全决策方面的潜在优势，并将其应用于英格兰东南部的一个中等规模的城镇。