Evaluating atmospheric icing forecasts with ground‐based ceilometer profiles,Meteorological Applications

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Evaluating atmospheric icing forecasts with ground‐based ceilometer profiles
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-20 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1964
Karoliina Hämäläinen ₁ , Anne Hirsikko ₁ , Ari Leskinen _{2,

3} , Mika Komppula ₂ , Ewan J. O'Connor _{1,

4} , Sami Niemelä ₁

Affiliation

Atmospheric icing can cause severe damage and danger for many different sectors of society, and accurate forecasts of icing can help mitigate this. The aim of the study is to demonstrate how new ceilometer‐based icing observations can be used in icing model verification. The study focuses on icing in the lowest 2 km of the atmosphere. The lowest 400 m of the atmosphere is essential for wind energy production and electricity power lines, while the higher elevations are essential from the aviation point of view. For aviation, the most risky situations are take‐offs and landings. The ceilometer observations provide a new way to investigate atmospheric icing. Ceilometers provide vertical profiles of clouds which can be further processed in order to identify in‐cloud icing conditions. The new type of ceilometer‐based icing observations enables more detailed verification of icing forecasts both in the vertical and in terms of geographical location. Overall, the model shows good skill in predicting clear‐sky situations. The verification results show that the icing model performs better for inland areas than for coastal areas, which is attributed to the tendency of the model to forecast clouds, and in‐cloud icing, at higher altitudes than observed.

中文翻译：

使用地面云高仪配置文件评估大气结冰的预测

大气积冰可能会对社会的许多不同部门造成严重的破坏和危险，而准确的积冰预报可以帮助减轻这种情况。这项研究的目的是演示如何将新的基于云高仪的结冰观测结果用于结冰模型验证。该研究的重点是在最低的2 km大气中结冰。最低的大气层400 m对于风能生产和电力线至关重要，而从航空的角度来看，更高的海拔高度至关重要。对于航空而言，最危险的情况是起降。云高仪的观测提供了一种研究大气积冰的新方法。云高仪提供云的垂直剖面，可以对其进行进一步处理以识别云内结冰情况。新型基于云高仪的结冰观测值可以在垂直方向和地理位置方面更详细地验证结冰预报。总体而言，该模型在预测晴朗天空情况方面显示出良好的技巧。验证结果表明，与内陆地区相比，结冰模型的性能要好于沿海地区，这归因于该模型倾向于在比观测到的更高的高度预测云和结冰的趋势。

更新日期：2020-11-21

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