Growing global evidence demonstrates that not only the invasion of alien species has imposed serious threats to native biodiversity, but it also threatens health and economics. The raccoon (Procyon lotor), medium-sized mammal, native to North America, as a result of escapes or deliberate introductions in the mid-twentieth century, is now distributed across much of mainland Europe and the Caucasus and known as an alien invasive species. The raccoon was observed and reported for the first time in 1991 in the Caspian Hyrcanian mixed forests ecoregion in Iran, near the border of Azerbaijan. Although it has been almost three decades since the first report in the northwest of the country, there are not many official reports nor scientific research on its dispersal and adaptive behaviour. In this study, we provide new evidence on the current distribution range and predict the potential distribution range and thus invasion risk of the raccoon under climate change in Iran. We trained an ensemble of species distribution models trained in native and European invaded range and transferred it over space and time to Iran in 6 future climate scenarios. We also calculated the potential dispersal range of the raccoon per year and explored potential invasion corridors. Our results show that the raccoon inclined to expand in the forests and rangelands near the Caspian Sea and toward west Iran. Our work provides evidence to conservationists and decision-makers to further focus on the areas where the species will most likely expand, under the future scenarios of the climate change in 2050.

越来越多的全球证据表明，外来物种的入侵不仅对本地生物多样性构成了严重威胁，而且还威胁着健康和经济。浣熊（Procyon lotor），由于逃逸或在20世纪中的有意引进而原产于北美的中型哺乳动物，现已分布在欧洲大陆和高加索地区的大部分地区，被称为外来入侵物种。1991年，首次在阿塞拜疆边界附近的伊朗里海Hyrcanian混交林生态区观察到并报告了浣熊。尽管距该国西北部的第一份报告已经过去了将近三十年，但关于其传播和适应性行为的官方报告也很少，也没有科学研究。在这项研究中，我们提供了有关当前分布范围的新证据，并预测了潜在的分布范围，从而预测了伊朗在气候变化下浣熊的入侵风险。我们训练了在本地和欧洲入侵范围内训练过的物种分布模型整体，并在未来6种气候情景下将其随时间和空间转移到伊朗。我们还计算了每年浣熊的潜在传播范围，并探讨了潜在的入侵走廊。我们的结果表明，浣熊倾向于在里海附近的森林和牧场以及向伊朗西部扩展。我们的工作为保护主义者和决策者提供了证据，以进一步关注在2050年气候变化的未来情况下物种最有可能扩展的领域。我们的结果表明，浣熊倾向于在里海附近的森林和牧场以及向伊朗西部扩展。我们的工作为保护主义者和决策者提供了证据，以进一步关注在2050年气候变化的未来情况下物种最有可能扩展的领域。我们的结果表明，浣熊倾向于在里海附近的森林和牧场以及向伊朗西部扩展。我们的工作为保护主义者和决策者提供了证据，以进一步关注在2050年气候变化的未来情况下物种最有可能扩展的领域。