ABSTRACT

Rainwater tanks or cisterns are a low impact development infrastructure used to control stormwater runoff and reduce water demand. However, climate change may affect its performance due to increased rainfall intensities. This study evaluates the uncertainty on the effectiveness of cisterns to reduce peak runoff under climate change in an urban watershed in Brazil. Twelve updated intensity-duration-frequency curves, based on six Global Circulation Models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5, were used to yield hyetographs for 2 h-storm events with different recurrence intervals. Peak runoff reduction ranged between 0.4% and 5.5% for RCP 4.5 and 0.4% and 6.3% for RCP 8.5. Under climate change, a reasonable runoff control could be reached if at least 20% of the buildings installed a 5 m³ cistern. Uncertainty in future climate should be addressed in rainfall-runoff modelling to guide stormwater management decisions.

摘要

雨水罐或蓄水池是用于控制雨水径流并减少水需求的低影响开发基础设施。但是，由于降雨强度增加，气候变化可能会影响其性能。这项研究评估了在巴西城市集水区气候变化下，蓄水池减少峰值径流有效性的不确定性。使用十二个更新的强度-持续时间-频率曲线，基于耦合模型间比较项目5的六个全局循环模型和两个代表性浓度路径（RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5），绘制了2个h暴风雨事件的声图。复发间隔。RCP 4.5的峰值径流减少介于0.4％和5.5％之间，RCP 8.5的峰值径流减少介于0.4％和6.3％之间。在气候变化下^3个水箱。应在降雨径流模型中解决未来气候的不确定性，以指导雨水管理决策。