Abstract: This study combines regression analysis with machine learning analysis to study the merit order effect of renewable energy focusing on German market, the largest market in Europe with high renewable energy penetration. The results show that electricity from wind and solar sources reduced the spot market price by 9.64 €/MWh on average during the period from 2010 to 2017. Wind had a relatively stable impact across the day, ranging from 5.88 €/MWh to 8.04 €/MWh, while the solar energy impact varied greatly across different hours, ranging from 0.24 €/MWh to 11.78 €/MWh and having a stronger impact than wind during peak hours. The results also show characteristics of the interactions between renewable energy and spot market prices, including the slightly diminishing merit order effect of renewable energy at high generation volumes. Finally, a scenario-based analysis illustrates how different proportions of wind and solar energies affect the spot market price.

中文翻译：

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可再生能源发电对德国现货市场价格的影响：采用提升方法的事后分析

摘要：本研究将回归分析与机器学习分析相结合，以德国为市场，研究可再生能源的优势顺序效应，德国是欧洲最大的可再生能源普及率最高的市场。结果表明，从风能和太阳能获取的电力在2010年至2017年期间平均使现货市场价格降低了9.64欧元/兆瓦时。风电全天的影响相对稳定，范围从5.88欧元/兆瓦时到8.04欧元/兆瓦。兆瓦时，而太阳能的影响在不同的小时内变化很大，范围从0.24欧元/兆瓦时到11.78欧元/兆瓦时，并且在高峰时段比风影响更大。结果还显示了可再生能源和现货市场价格之间相互作用的特征，包括在高发电量下可再生能源的功绩效应略有下降。最后，