Electric vehicles (EVs) will be an important part of a low-carbon economy. Future EV adoption depends on overcoming multiple barriers, including charging infrastructure, sufficient electricity generation, and the availability of battery raw materials at acceptable costs, including cobalt, copper and nickel – which typically are co-produced. Various EV projections have been made, along with associated requirements for battery raw materials (demand). There have been separate assessments of the availability of raw materials (supply). However, integrated assessments of supply and demand and their interaction over time are lacking to support decision-making. Using a dynamic market model that reflects the co-produced nature of cobalt, copper and nickel production as well as recycling, we estimate global output of these three metals under different EV growth scenarios from 2020 to 2040. Results suggest that starting in 2025, replacement demand for battery raw materials becomes important. Thus, estimates for future material demand that consider only demands from new EVs are incomplete and misleading. EV deployment and associated increased demand for raw materials will have a greater impact on prices for cobalt than nickel and, in turn, for nickel than copper. High EV deployment scenarios will be difficult to achieve without larger supplies of copper, nickel and cobalt than forthcoming under the conditions modeled here, which anticipates a six-year time lag between a demand increase and the expansion of metal-production capacity. Shortening battery lifetimes and improving collection and recycling rates increase secondary supply, but the extent to which these factors support additional EV deployment is mixed.

电动汽车（EV）将成为低碳经济的重要组成部分。未来电动汽车的采用取决于克服多个障碍，包括充电基础设施，充足的电力生产以及以可接受的成本（包括钴，铜和镍）以可接受的成本获得电池原材料，这些原材料通常是共同生产的。做出了各种电动汽车预测，以及对电池原材料的相关要求（需求）。对原材料（供应）的可用性进行了单独的评估。但是，缺乏对供求及其随时间的相互作用的综合评估以支持决策。使用动态的市场模型来反映钴，铜和镍的生产以及回收的共同生产性质，我们估计了从2020年到2040年在不同EV增长情景下这三种金属的全球产量。结果表明，从2025年开始，电池原材料的替代需求变得至关重要。因此，仅考虑来自新电动汽车的需求的对未来材料需求的估计是不完整的且具有误导性。电动汽车的部署以及随之而来的原材料需求的增加将对钴的价格产生比镍更大的影响，进而对镍的价格产生比铜的影响。如果没有更大的铜，镍和钴供应量（在此处模拟的条件下），将很难实现高电动汽车部署方案，这预计需求增长与金属产能扩张之间将存在六年的时间差。缩短电池寿命并提高回收率和回收率可增加二次供电，