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Flood risk assessment in Luvuvhu river, Limpopo province, South Africa
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2020.102959
Badana Ntanganedzeni , Joel Nobert

Floods are the most destructive and affect a larger population as compared to any other weather related disasters. Luvuvhu River Catchment is one of the areas in South Africa that has been subjected to extensive flood damage. A major flood hazard which claimed lives and left thousands homeless occurred in the year 1999/2000. The main aim of the study was to analyse flood frequency and assess flood risk in Luvuvhu River Catchment. Four flow gauging stations covering the catchment were used for flood frequency analysis and only a segment was assessed for flood risk.

The Anderson-Darling (AD), Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), and Chi-Squared (x2) goodness of fit tests revealed Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 and Generalized Extreme Value as the best fitting distribution to the annual maximum discharge data. The computed peak discharges were 206.61 m3/s, 351.63 m3/s, 498.46 m3/s and 685.41 m3/s for 20, 50, 100 and 200 year return period for A9H001 station.

HEC-RAS was used with ArcGIS for floodplain mapping. Flood risk maps provided an indication of areas that are at risk of being inundated during floods with 20, 50, 100 and 200 years return period which were 462,407 m2, 539,198 m2, 594,735 m2 and 65, 925 m2 respectively. These areas will be submerged in depth of water ranging from 0.1 m along the floodplains to 9 m in the main channel. They also revealed that settlements and cultivated areas will be the most vulnerable land uses in all flood events except 200 year flood, where natural resources will be more exposed.



中文翻译:

南非林波波省卢武沃河的洪水风险评估

与任何其他与天气有关的灾难相比,洪灾最具破坏性,并影响更大的人口。Luvuvhu流域是南非遭受洪水泛滥破坏的地区之一。1999/2000年发生了严重的洪灾,夺去生命,造成数千人无家可归。这项研究的主要目的是分析卢武福呼河流域的洪水频率并评估洪水风险。覆盖流域的四个流量监测站用于洪水频率分析,仅评估了一部分洪水风险。

安德森(Anderson-Darling)(AD),柯尔莫哥洛夫(Kolmogorov-Smirnov)(KS)和Chi-Squared(x 2)拟合优度测试显示对数正态,对数皮尔逊3和广义极值是对年度最大排放数据的最佳拟合分布。对于A9H001站的20年,50年,100年和200年的回收期,计算出的峰值流量分别为206.61 m 3 /s、351.63 m 3 /s、498.46 m 3 / s和685.41 m 3 / s。

HEC-RAS与ArcGIS一起用于洪泛区映射。洪水风险图提供的是在与20,50,100和200年洪水期间被淹没风险区域的指示返回周期,其是462407米2,539198米2,594735米2和65,925米2分别。这些区域将被淹没在沿洪泛区0.1 m至主河道9 m的水深中。他们还透露,定居点和耕地将是所有洪水事件中最脆弱的土地利用,除了200年的洪水,自然资源将更加暴露。

更新日期:2020-11-19
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