At the end of February 2020 COVID-19 infection appeared in Italy, with consequent diffusion, in few weeks, in almost all the Europe. Despite that human-to-human is the recognized main virus transmission way, several authors supposed pollution-to-human mechanisms to justify the appearance of contagious in Italy. However, these works often suffered of a lack of analysis of possible overlapping of different variables, other than only environmental ones.

After a decreasing of detected cases in summer, Europe faced with the appearance of a COVID-19 second wave. In this context the Italy situation appeared to be “strange”. Indeed, compared with the other selected Countries (France, Germany, UK, and Spain), the Italian infection cases resulted to be lower, in the same analysed period. This work is devoted to find a possible justification of the unexpected situation found in Italy. A comparison of the imposed restrictions in the considered Countries allows to highlight that some policies result more effective to limit the virus spread. This clearly shows that the imposed constraints and the people capacities to receipt them are fundamental parameters that must be always accounted in the determination of the virus expansion. The lesson provided by Italy should be achieved by other member states where the COVID-19 sanitary crisis results to be worse. It is evident that the re-opening of ordinary activities involving people interactions, in Autumn, may contribute to promote a larger SARS-CoV-2 diffusion also in Italy.

Author strongly highlights that pollution-to-human transmission mechanisms cannot be proposed whiteout considering the complexity of human-to-human interactions, that can be modified by imposed restrictions. It is fundamental to understand that a more precise acknowledge of the variables that should be considered in model predictions, instead of a need of more precise point prediction, will contribute to increase the reliability and the comprehension of the virus diffusion mechanisms, that is fundamental to face this pandemic period.

2020年2月底，COVID-19感染在意大利出现，并在随后的几周内传播到了几乎整个欧洲。尽管人与人之间是公认的主要病毒传播途径，但几位作者还是认为人与人之间的污染机制可以证明意大利具有传染性。但是，这些作品常常缺乏对仅环境变量之外的其他变量可能重叠的分析。

在夏季发现的病例减少之后，欧洲面临着第二次COVID-19浪潮的出现。在这种情况下，意大利的情况似乎是“奇怪的”。实际上，与其他选定国家（法国，德国，英国和西班牙）相比，在同一分析时期内，意大利感染病例的发生率更低。这项工作致力于为在意大利发现的意外情况找到可能的理由。通过比较所考虑的国家所施加的限制，可以突出显示某些政策的结果更加有效地限制了病毒的传播。这清楚地表明，施加的约束条件和人员接受约束的能力是确定病毒扩展时必须始终考虑的基本参数。意大利提供的经验教训应该由COVID-19卫生危机造成更严重后果的其他成员国来学习。显然，秋季重新启动涉及人际互动的日常活动，也可能有助于在意大利扩大SARS-CoV-2的传播。

作者强烈强调指出，考虑到人与人之间相互作用的复杂性，不能提出污染对人的传播机制的建议，可以通过强加限制加以修改。基本了解是，对模型预测中应考虑的变量进行更精确的确认，而不是需要进行更精确的点预测，将有助于提高病毒扩散机制的可靠性和理解力，这对于面对这个大流行时期。