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Prediction of Design Hourly Volume on Rural Roads
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board ( IF 1.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-17 , DOI: 10.1177/0361198120965563
Miloš Petković 1 , Vladan Tubić 1 , Nemanja Stepanović 1
Affiliation  

Design hourly volume (DHV) represents one of the most significant parameters in the procedures of developing and evaluating road designs. DHV values can be accurately and precisely calculated only on the road sections with the implemented automatic traffic counters (ATCs) which constantly monitor the traffic volume. Unfortunately, many road sections do not contain ATCs primarily because of the implementation costs. Consequently, for many years, the DHV values have been defined on the basis of occasional counting and the factors related to traffic flow variability over time. However, it has been determined that this approach has significant limitations and that the predicted values considerably deviate from the actual values. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to develop a model which will enable DHV prediction on rural roads in cases of insufficient data. The suggested model is based on the correlation between DHVs and the parameters defining the characteristics of traffic flows, that is, the relationship between the traffic volumes on design working days and non-working days, and annual average daily traffic. The results of the conducted research indicate that the application of the proposed model enables the prediction of DHV values with a significant level of data accuracy and reliability. The coefficient of determination (R2) shows that more than 98% of the variance of the calculated DHVs was explained by the observed DHV values, while the mean error ranged from 4.86% to 7.84% depending on the number of hours for which DHV was predicted.



中文翻译:

农村道路设计时量的预测

设计小时体积(DHV)代表着制定和评估道路设计过程中最重要的参数之一。借助已实施的自动交通计数器(ATC),DHV值只能在路段上进行准确,精确的计算,该计数器会不断监控交通量。不幸的是,主要由于实施成本,许多路段不包含ATC。因此,多年来,DHV值是根据不定期计数和与交通流量随时间变化的相关因素定义的。但是,已经确定该方法具有很大的局限性,并且预测值与实际值有很大的出入。因此,本文的主要目的是开发一个模型,该模型可以在数据不足的情况下对乡村道路进行DHV预测。建议的模型基于DHV与定义交通流特征的参数之间的相关性,即设计工作日和非工作日的交通量与年平均日交通量之间的关系。进行的研究结果表明,所提出模型的应用使得能够以显着水平的数据准确性和可靠性来预测DHV值。测定系数(R 设计工作日和非工作日的流量与年度平均每日流量之间的关系。进行的研究结果表明,所提出模型的应用使得能够以显着水平的数据准确性和可靠性来预测DHV值。测定系数(R 设计工作日和非工作日的流量与年度平均每日流量之间的关系。进行的研究结果表明,所提出模型的应用使得能够以显着水平的数据准确性和可靠性来预测DHV值。测定系数(R2)显示,通过观察到的DHV值可以解释所计算的DHV的98%以上的方差,而平均误差取决于预测DHV的小时数,范围为4.86%至7.84%。

更新日期:2020-11-18
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