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Modeling wildfire ignition origins in southern California using linear network point processes
Annals of Applied Statistics ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-16 , DOI: 10.1214/19-aoas1309
Medha Uppala , Mark S. Handcock

This paper focuses on spatial and temporal modeling of point processes on linear networks. Point processes on linear networks can simply be defined as point events occurring on or near line segment network structures embedded in a certain space. A separable modeling framework is introduced that posits separate formation and dissolution models of point processes on linear networks over time. While the model was inspired by spider web building activity in brick mortar lines, the focus is on modeling wildfire ignition origins near road networks over a span of 14 years. As most wildfires in California have human-related origins, modeling the origin locations with respect to the road network provides insight into how human, vehicular and structural densities affect ignition occurrence. Model results show that roads that traverse different types of regions such as residential, interface and wildland regions have higher ignition intensities compared to roads that only exist in each of the mentioned region types.

中文翻译:

使用线性网络点过程对南加州的野火点火起源进行建模

本文着重于线性网络上点过程的时空建模。线性网络上的点过程可以简单地定义为在某个空间中嵌入的线段网络结构上或附近发生的点事件。引入了一个可分离的建模框架,该框架假定分离的形成溶解线性网络上的点过程模型。虽然该模型的灵感来自于砂浆线中蜘蛛网的建造活动,但重点是对14年间道路网络附近的野火起火源进行建模。由于加利福尼亚州的大多数野火都与人类有关,因此对道路网络的原点位置进行建模可以深入了解人,车辆和结构的密度如何影响着火。模型结果表明,与仅存在于上述每种区域类型中的道路相比,穿越不同类型区域(例如居住区,交界处和荒地区域)的道路具有更高的着火强度。
更新日期:2020-04-16
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