Container liner shipping is a kind of transportation mode that is operated according to a schedule. Although the goal is to operate container liner ships on time, the actual arrival time and handling time often deviate from the schedule due to uncertain factors. The identification of a proper probability distribution to describe time deviation law will have a significant impact on accurately recognizing the uncertainty of the operation of container liner ships. In view of this problem, this paper discusses the basic characteristics of container liner ships’ operation time, analyses the properties of relevant probability distributions, and selects representative container ports around the world to collect data on the container liner ships’ operation time for statistical verification. The results show that under schedule constraints and interference uncertainty, the time deviation presents a specific state between a fixed length and random distribution that conforms to the properties of an Erlang distribution. Given that container liner shipping follows the same operation rules worldwide, it is reasonable to deduce that the time deviation law could be generalized to other container ports. Finally, the practical value of this study is demonstrated through quantitative evaluation of port congestion degree under various probabilistic models.

中文翻译：

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不确定干扰下集装箱班轮时间偏差规律的概率分布

集装箱班轮运输是一种按计划运行的运输方式。尽管目标是按时操作集装箱班轮船，但由于不确定的因素，实际到达时间和装卸时间通常会偏离计划。确定适当的概率分布来描述时间偏差定律将对准确识别集装箱班轮船的运行不确定性产生重大影响。针对这一问题，本文讨论了集装箱班轮船运行时间的基本特征，分析了相关概率分布的性质，并选择了世界范围内的代表性集装箱港口来收集有关集装箱班轮船运行时间的数据进行统计验证。 。结果表明，在调度约束和干扰不确定性的影响下，时间偏差在固定长度和随机分布之间呈现出特定的状态，符合Erlang分布的性质。考虑到集装箱班轮运输在全球范围内遵循相同的操作规则，因此可以合理地推断出时间偏差定律可以推广到其他集装箱港口。最后，通过对各种概率模型下港口拥挤程度的定量评估，证明了本研究的实用价值。可以合理地推断出时间偏差定律可以推广到其他集装箱港口。最后，通过对各种概率模型下港口拥挤程度的定量评估，证明了本研究的实用价值。可以合理地推断出时间偏差定律可以推广到其他集装箱港口。最后，通过对各种概率模型下港口拥挤程度的定量评估，证明了本研究的实用价值。