Abstract Microgrids are an increasingly relevant technology for integrating renewable energy sources into electricity systems. Based on a microgrid implementation in California, we investigate microgrid operation under real-world conditions. These conditions have not yet been considered in combination and encompass energy charges, demand charges, export limits, as well as uncertainty about future electricity demand and generation in the microgrid. Under these conditions, we evaluate the performance of two frequently applied groups of strategies for microgrid operation. The first group is composed of proactive strategies that optimize decisions based on forecasts of future electricity generation and demand. The second group includes reactive strategies that make operational decisions based exclusively on the current state of the microgrid. We evaluate the performance of the strategies under varying operational parameters, forecast accuracies, and microgrid configurations—well beyond our Californian showcase. Our results confirm the expectation that proactive strategies outperform reactive ones in the majority of settings. Yet, reactive strategies can perform better under short control intervals or under moderate prediction errors of PV generation or demand. Furthermore, the interplay between real-world conditions and operational strategies reveals several additional insights for research on microgrid operation. First, we find that demand charges and export limits decisively affect microgrid performance. Second, the impact of forecast errors is highly non-linear and non-monotonous. Third, escalating negative interactions between forecast errors and demand charges make proactive strategies benefit from longer control intervals. This result is contrary to existing best practice, which promotes short control intervals to minimize the impact of uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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现实条件下的微电网运行策略

摘要 微电网是一种将可再生能源整合到电力系统中的相关技术。基于加利福尼亚州的微电网实施，我们调查了真实条件下的微电网运行情况。这些条件尚未综合考虑，包括能源费用、需求费用、出口限制以及未来电力需求和微电网发电的不确定性。在这些条件下，我们评估了两组常用的微电网运行策略的性能。第一组由主动策略组成，这些策略基于对未来发电和需求的预测来优化决策。第二组包括反应性策略，这些策略完全基于微电网的当前状态做出运营决策。我们在不同的操作参数、预测精度和微电网配置下评估策略的性能——远远超出我们在加利福尼亚的展示。我们的结果证实了在大多数情况下主动策略优于被动策略的预期。然而，反应策略在较短的控制间隔下或在光伏发电或需求的中等预测误差下表现更好。此外，现实世界条件和运营策略之间的相互作用揭示了对微电网运营研究的一些额外见解。首先，我们发现需求费用和出口限制决定性地影响微电网性能。其次，预测误差的影响是高度非线性和非单调的。第三，预测误差和需求费用之间不断升级的负面相互作用使主动策略受益于更长的控制间隔。这一结果与现有的最佳实践相反，后者提倡较短的控制间隔，以最大限度地减少不确定性的影响。