Abstract Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertainty that threatens timely and appropriate decisions surrounding these complex issues. Identifying such corridors of clarity could help understanding critical phenomena or causal pathways sufficiently well to justify taking policy action. To this end, we suggest four principles: Follow the strongest and most direct path between policy decisions on outcomes, focus on finding sufficient evidence for policy purpose, prioritize no-regrets policies by avoiding options with controversial, uncertain, or immeasurable benefits, aim for getting the big picture roughly right rather than focusing on details.

中文翻译：

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清晰的走廊：克服人类世不确定性瘫痪的四项原则


摘要 全球环境变化因其范围广泛、持久且可能不可逆转的后果而给人类带来挑战。有效应对的关键是使用适当的科学视角来透视不确定性的迷雾，这些不确定性威胁到围绕这些复杂问题做出及时和适当的决策。识别这种清晰的走廊可以帮助充分理解关键现象或因果路径，以证明采取政策行动的合理性。为此，我们建议四项原则：在关于结果的政策决策之间遵循最强有力和​​最直接的路径，注重为政策目的寻找足够的证据，优先考虑不后悔的政策，避免选择具有争议性、不确定性或不可估量的好处，旨在大致正确地了解大局，而不是专注于细节。