ABSTRACT The study assesses the variability and trends of both meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1970 to 2013 in Lake Malawi and Shire River basins using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evaporation index (SPEI) for meteorological droughts and the lake level change index (LLCI) for hydrological droughts. Trends and slopes in droughts and drought drivers are estimated using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope, respectively. Results suggest that meteorological droughts are increasing due to a decrease in precipitation which is exacerbated by an increase in temperature (potential evapotranspiration). The hydrological system of Lake Malawi seems to have a >24-month memory towards meteorological conditions, since the 36-month SPEI can predict hydrological droughts 10 months in advance. The study has found the critical lake level that would trigger hydrological drought to be 474.1 m a.s.l. The increase in drought is a concern as this will have serious impacts on water resources and hydropower supply in Malawi.

中文翻译：

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马拉维湖和夏尔河流域的气象和水文干旱评估（1970-2013）

摘要 本研究使用标准化降水指数 (SPI) 和标准化降水蒸发指数 (SPEI) 评估了 1970 年至 2013 年马拉维湖和夏尔河流域气象干旱和湖泊水位变化的气象和水文干旱的变异性和趋势。水文干旱指数（LLCI）。干旱和干旱驱动因素的趋势和斜率分别使用 Mann-Kendall 检验和 Sen 斜率进行估计。结果表明，由于降水减少，气温升高（潜在蒸散量）加剧了气象干旱的加剧。马拉维湖的水文系统似乎对气象条件有 24 个月以上的记忆，因为 36 个月的 SPEI 可以提前 10 个月预测水文干旱。