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Factors Affecting the Behavior of Large Forest Fires in Turkey
Environmental Management ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-16 , DOI: 10.1007/s00267-020-01389-z
İsmet Daşdemir , Fuat Aydın , Mertol Ertuğrul

Fire behavior should be estimated accurately and multidimensionally to reduce the dangers and harmful effects of forest fires and to develop effective fire management strategies. Therefore, in this study, the most important factors affecting fire behavior were determined by statistical methods using data of 59 large forest fires that occurred between 1977 and 2017 in Turkey. Some data were obtained from the General Directorate of Forestry, and the remaining were obtained from meteorological stations and Google Maps. The large forest fires were investigated with descriptive statistics. Correlation, regression with generalized models, and factor analyses were performed. It was discovered that the rate of spread is particularly related to the wind direction, wind speed, and stand canopy. The most important factors affecting the behavior of large forest fires were determined as (1) stand age, (2) stand canopy, (3) wind direction, (4) wind speed, (5) altitude, and (6) aspect, and 76% of fire behavior is linked to these factors. Moreover, a forest fire behavior index (FFBI) was developed for large forest fires. They were categorized into three classes using the FFBI, and the characteristics of each class were identified. Finally, the findings were discussed, and suggestions for fire management were presented.

中文翻译:

影响土耳其大型森林火灾行为的因素

应该准确和多维度地估计火灾行为,以减少森林火灾的危险和有害影响,并制定有效的火灾管理策略。因此,在本研究中,使用土耳其 1977 年至 2017 年间发生的 59 次大型森林火灾的数据,通过统计方法确定了影响火灾行为的最重要因素。一些数据来自林业总局,其余数据来自气象站和谷歌地图。对大型森林火灾进行了描述性统计调查。进行了相关性、广义模型回归和因子分析。发现传播速度与风向、风速和林冠特别相关。影响大森林火灾行为的最重要因素确定为(1)林龄,(2)林冠,(3)风向,(4)风速,(5)海拔,(6)风向,以及76% 的火灾行为与这些因素有关。此外,还针对大型森林火灾制定了森林火灾行为指数(FFBI)。使用 FFBI 将他们分为三类,并确定每个类的特征。最后,对调查结果进行了讨论,并提出了火灾管理建议。并确定了每个类别的特征。最后,对调查结果进行了讨论,并提出了火灾管理建议。并确定了每个类别的特征。最后,对调查结果进行了讨论,并提出了火灾管理建议。
更新日期:2020-11-16
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