Abstract

This paper presents photovoltaic (PV) generation models used to predict the power output injected into the grid, taking into account the relevant environmental variables, such as irradiance and ambient air temperature. The purpose is to identify the models that have the necessary degree of accuracy and simplicity to be used in studies of technical impacts of connecting PV generation plants to power systems. The paper focuses on semi-empirical models that adopt analytical expressions based on empirical equations and information provided by manufacturers. Using time series of ground measured irradiance and local ambient air temperature, five models are used to generate power output time series in minutely and hourly resolution, which are then compared with actual power measurements using statistical metrics.

Graphic abstract

• Presents and compares photovoltaic (PV) generation models to predict the power output with the objective of applications in power systems studies.

• Uses time series of measured irradiance and temperature and generated power applied to a Brazilian PV plant.

• Different time resolution compared using statistical metrics.

中文翻译：

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用于估算发电量的光伏模型的比较：以巴西数据为例

摘要

本文介绍了光伏（PV）生成模型，该模型用于预测注入到电网中的功率输出，同时考虑了相关的环境变量，例如辐照度和环境空气温度。目的是确定具有必要程度的准确性和简单性的模型，以用于研究将光伏发电站连接到电力系统的技术影响。本文着重于采用基于经验方程式和制造商提供的信息的分析表达式的半经验模型。使用地面测得的辐照度和当地环境温度的时间序列，使用五个模型来生成分钟和小时分辨率的功率输出时间序列，然后将它们与使用统计指标的实际功率测量值进行比较。

图形摘要

• 提出并比较光伏（PV）生成模型，以预测功率输出，以在电力系统研究中的应用为目标。

• 使用测得的辐照度和温度的时间序列以及应用于巴西光伏电站的发电量。

• 使用统计指标比较不同的时间分辨率。