The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 ce was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.

仪器记录表明，热带气旋活动对年际和年代际尺度上的海洋和大气变化敏感。但是，我们对气候对热带气旋行为影响的理解受到历史记录短和史前重建稀疏的限制，特别是在北太平洋西部，那里的沿海社区每年因台风而丧生和生计。在这里，为了探索过去的区域台风动力学，我们重建了三千年的深热带北太平洋回旋作用。与现有记录相结合，我们的重建演示前低基线台风活动1350 CE随后是小冰河时期的频繁风暴。这种模式，加上水气候代理变化，说明太平洋水气候与热带气旋气候之间存在百年尺度的联系。全球气候模型的集合表明，小冰河世纪期间太平洋沃克环流的迁移和两种太平洋气候模式的变异性，可能有助于增强北太平洋热带西部的热带气旋活动。在下一世纪，太平洋步行者环流和热带地区扩张的预期变化将扭转小冰河时期的水文气候趋势，从而有可能减少热带深部太平洋的台风活动。