The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and included, as of early November, six hurricanes that made landfall in the United States during the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. Such an event would necessitate a large‐scale evacuation, with implications for the trajectory of the pandemic. Here we model how a hypothetical hurricane evacuation from four counties in southeast Florida would affect COVID‐19 case levels. We find that hurricane evacuation increases the total number of COVID‐19 cases in both origin and destination locations; however, if transmission rates in destination counties can be kept from rising during evacuation, excess evacuation‐induced case numbers can be minimized by directing evacuees to counties experiencing lower COVID‐19 transmission rates. Ultimately, the number of excess COVID‐19 cases produced by the evacuation depends on the ability of destination counties to meet evacuee needs while minimizing virus exposure through public health directives. These results are relevant to disease transmission during evacuations stemming from additional climate‐related hazards such as wildfires and floods.

中文翻译：

---

美国 COVID-19 大流行期间飓风疏散的复合风险

2020 年大西洋飓风季节极为活跃，截至 11 月初，在 2019 年全球冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 大流行期间，有六场飓风在美国登陆。此类事件将需要大规模疏散，这会对大流行的发展轨迹产生影响。在这里，我们模拟了佛罗里达州东南部四个县的假设飓风疏散将如何影响 COVID-19 病例水平。我们发现飓风疏散增加了出发地和目的地的 COVID-19 病例总数；然而，如果疏散期间目的地县的传播率不上升，则可以通过将疏散人员引导至 COVID-19 传播率较低的县来最大程度地减少疏散引起的病例数。最终，疏散造成的过量 COVID-19 病例数量取决于目的地县满足疏散人员需求的能力，同时通过公共卫生指令最大限度地减少病毒暴露。这些结果与疏散期间因野火和洪水等额外气候相关灾害而导致的疾病传播有关。