Various climate adaptation strategies are being studied for the agricultural sector to address the effects of climate change. Global warming is predicted to have a significant influence on cool-season grass production in Japan in terms of decreasing grass dry matter yield. The authors have studied adaptation strategies to maintain grass dry matter yield using orchardgrass, a cool-season grass. However, it may be difficult to adapt to future climate conditions using management methods such as fertilizer application or changing grassland renovation cycles using only one grass species. In this study, a model was constructed formulating the relationship between temperature and yields of the main cool-season grasses in Japan, and the effects of global warming on grass productivity were predicted. Two models were constructed, and the optimal one was selected using Akaike's information criterion. The selected model was then validated using correlations with observation data. We also compared areas suitable for cultivation at current and higher temperatures, which were produced as maps using the selected model. Bahiagrass, which is a warm-season grass, was suitable for cultivation in coastal areas in southern Kanto under increased temperature condition. It may be useful, therefore, to convert to heat-resistant grasses, such as orchardgrass or tall fescue, as temperatures rise.

中文翻译：

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评估全球变暖和气候适应策略影响的冷季草生产力估计模型

农业部门正在研究各种气候适应战略，以应对气候变化的影响。就减少草干物质产量而言，预计全球变暖将对日本的冷季草生产产生重大影响。作者研究了使用果园草（一种凉季草）维持草干物质产量的适应策略。然而，使用施肥或仅使用一种草种改变草地改造周期等管理方法可能难以适应未来的气候条件。在这项研究中，建立了一个模型来表达日本主要冷季牧草的温度与产量之间的关系，并预测了全球变暖对牧草生产力的影响。构建了两个模型，并使用 Akaike 的信息准则选择最优的。然后使用与观察数据的相关性来验证所选模型。我们还比较了适合在当前温度和更高温度下种植的区域，这些区域是使用所选模型制作的地图。Bahiagrass 是一种暖季草，适合在温度升高的情况下在关东南部沿海地区种植。因此，随着温度升高，转化为耐热草（如果园草或高羊茅）可能很有用。属暖季型草，适宜在关东南部沿海地区高温条件下栽培。因此，随着温度升高，转化为耐热草（如果园草或高羊茅）可能很有用。属暖季型草，适宜在关东南部沿海地区高温条件下栽培。因此，随着温度升高，转化为耐热草（如果园草或高羊茅）可能很有用。