The objectives were to (1) delineate the complex set of rules governing the fate and transfer of water rights as agricultural land is urbanized in Texas and New Mexico in the United States and Chihuahua in Mexico and (2) estimate the change in water use as a result of such urbanization. Important additional determinants of water use in the region include intensification of agriculture and the hydroschizophrenic policy framework. We conducted interviews with key informants to identify the possible outcomes for changes in water rights as land is urbanized. We constructed decision trees for each of the three jurisdictions, Chihuahua, Texas, and New Mexico, that identified the possible outcomes from urbanization. For each of the possible outcomes in the decision tree, we estimated a range of potential water use outcomes and the most likely water use outcome on a per unit of land area basis. Results show that urbanization of agricultural land has almost no impact on the aggregate demand for or use of surface water. However, the impacts of urbanization on groundwater use vary considerably over the region from Texas to New Mexico to Chihuahua. In New Mexico and Chihuahua where groundwater rights can be leased or sold to other users, the likely impact is a net increase in groundwater use as land is urbanized, ranging from 0 to 3,000 m³/ha in New Mexico and averaging 3,000 m³/ha or more in Chihuahua. In Texas, there is a net benefit in groundwater savings, but those savings are subject to being offset by increased groundwater pumping to meet the needs of expanding pecan production. The net result is continued groundwater depletion, threatening the life of the transboundary aquifers, the Hueco Bolson and the Mesilla Bolson, in the Middle Rio Grande basin (defined as the part of the basin between Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico to the confluence of the river with the Rio Conchos from Mexico).

中文翻译：

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城市化和农业集约化对跨界含水层的影响：一个案例研究

目标是（1）在美国德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州以及墨西哥的奇瓦瓦州将农业用地城市化的过程中，制定一套复杂的规则来管理水权的命运和转让，以及（2）估计用水量的变化为这种城市化的结果。该地区用水的其他重要决定因素包括农业集约化和精神分裂症政策框架。我们与主要信息提供者进行了访谈，以确定随着土地城市化水权变化的可能结果。我们为奇瓦瓦州，德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州三个辖区中的每个辖区构建了决策树，确定了城市化的可能结果。对于决策树中的每个可能结果，我们以单位土地面积为基础，估算了一系列潜在的用水结果以及最可能的用水结果。结果表明，农业用地的城市化几乎对地表水的总需求或使用没有影响。但是，从得克萨斯州到新墨西哥州再到奇瓦瓦州，城市化对地下水使用的影响差异很大。在可以将地下水权出租或出售给其他用户的新墨西哥州和奇瓦瓦州，可能的影响是随着土地的城市化，地下水的使用净增加，范围从0到3,000 m 从德克萨斯州到新墨西哥州再到奇瓦瓦州，城市化对地下水使用的影响差异很大。在可以将地下水权出租或出售给其他用户的新墨西哥州和奇瓦瓦州，可能的影响是随着土地的城市化，地下水的使用净增加，范围从0到3,000 m 从德克萨斯州到新墨西哥州再到奇瓦瓦州，城市化对地下水使用的影响差异很大。在可以将地下水权出租或出售给其他用户的新墨西哥州和奇瓦瓦州，可能的影响是随着土地的城市化，地下水的使用净增加，范围从0到3,000 m³ /公顷在新墨西哥和平均3000米³ / ha或更多的吉娃娃。在得克萨斯州，地下水节约有净收益，但是增加的地下水泵注可以满足增长的山核桃产量的需要，但这些节约可能会被抵消。最终结果是持续的地下水枯竭，威胁着里约格兰德中部盆地（定义为新墨西哥州大象比尤水库之间的盆地一部分至新墨西哥州汇合处）的跨界含水层，Hueco Bolson和Mesilla Bolson的生命。里约热内卢的墨西哥河）。