Huanglongbing (HLB, ex-greening) is the most devastating citrus disease around the world. We modelled HLB spread in scenarios with different populational levels of the main alternative host (Murraya paniculata) and Diaphorina citri Kuwayama, vector of HLB associated bacteria; and removal of HLB-symptomatic plants. A compartmental deterministic mathematical model was built for representing the HLB dynamics in the Reconcavo Baiano, Bahia State, Brazil. The model encompasses delays on latency and incubation disease periods and on the D. citri nymphal stages. The simulations indicated that the presence of alternative hosts at low proportion would not play a crucial role in HLB dynamics in situations of poor D. citri management, regardless of HLB-symptomatic plants eradication. Symptomatic citrus plants contribute more to increase the HLB-incidence than the alternative host in scenarios without a suitable D. citri management.

中文翻译：

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在替代宿主，媒介种群和有症状植物清除的情况下模拟柑橘黄龙病传播

黄龙病（HLB，前绿植物）是世界上最具破坏力的柑橘病。我们在主要替代寄主（Murraya paniculata）和柑橘黄褐病（Halmania LLB相关细菌的载体）具有不同种群水平的情况下对HLB传播进行了建模。和去除HLB有症状的植物。在巴西巴伊亚州的雷孔卡沃·贝亚诺（Reconcavo Baiano），建立了一个区间确定性数学模型来表示HLB动力学。该模型包括延迟时间，潜伏期和潜伏期，以及在柠檬果蝇阶段。模拟表明，在柑橘黄皮病管理不善的情况下，无论是否消除有症状的HLB，低比例替代寄主的存在都不会在HLB动态中发挥关键作用。