The increased frequency and spread of tropical peat fires over the last two decades have attracted global attention because they cause significant environmental and health impacts at local to global scales. To understand the relative importance of key factors controlling tropical peatland burning events, we developed PeatFire, an agent-based model simulating the interaction between human-induced ignitions, fire and peat characteristics. The model describes (1) above- and belowground fires, which spread independently but interact with each other; (2) above- and belowground biomass; and (3) the watertable determining peat dryness and susceptibility to fire. We applied PeatFire to a region in South Sumatra that has experienced profound natural rainforest loss due to peat fires. Sensitivity analysis of the model suggests that fire sizes depend mostly on watertable depth, peat-dry-index and number of dry days before ignition. Using pattern-oriented modelling, these factors were parameterised so that the model output matches spatiotemporal fire patterns observed in the study region in 2015. Our results emphasise the risk of a sudden shift from moderate fire occurrence to complete burning and highlight the importance of local context to peatland regulation, which should consider both biophysical and socioeconomic factors and strategies for peatland fire management.

中文翻译：

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PeatFire：一种基于代理的模型，用于模拟热带泥炭地生态系统中的火灾点火和蔓延

在过去的二十年里，热带泥炭火灾的频率和蔓延的增加引起了全球的关注，因为它们在当地到全球范围内造成了重大的环境和健康影响。为了了解控制热带泥炭地燃烧事件的关键因素的相对重要性，我们开发了 PeatFire，这是一种基于代理的模型，模拟人为点火、火灾和泥炭特性之间的相互作用。该模型描述了 (1) 地上和地下火灾，它们独立蔓延但相互影响；(2) 地上和地下生物量；(3) 决定泥炭干燥度和火灾敏感性的水位。我们将 PeatFire 应用于南苏门答腊的一个地区，该地区因泥炭火灾而遭受了严重的自然雨林损失。该模型的敏感性分析表明，火灾规模主要取决于水位深度、泥炭干燥指数和点火前干燥天数。使用面向模式的建模，这些因素被参数化，以便模型输出与 2015 年在研究区域观察到的时空火灾模式相匹配。 我们的结果强调了从中等火灾发生突然转变为完全燃烧的风险，并强调了当地背景的重要性泥炭地监管，应考虑生物物理和社会经济因素以及泥炭地火灾管理策略。