Abstract Coniferous sawnwood is the most important solid wood product in terms of its production volume and economic significance. It also plays a vital role in the forestry-forest industry value chain. We estimated price- and income elasticities for per capita softwood sawnwood consumption based on FAO data. Varying demand patterns are found across the regions. Only the countries with little supply from their own domestic sources had significant price elasticities of demand, relatively inelastic in the short-term, but more elastic in the long-term. They also tended to have the highest income elasticities. The elasticity estimates obtained for the panels of very low- or very high-income countries were not statistically significant. The potential for demand growth for coniferous sawnwood was assessed under five SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. The demand increase varies a lot from 88 to 154 Mm3 from 2015 to 2030 but demonstrates that the market growth can provide solid support for bioeconomy formation in the terms of economic income, carbon storage and substitution possibilities, and supply of by-products to other traditional or emerging products.

中文翻译：

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全球针叶锯材需求的新弹性和预测

摘要 针叶锯材是产量和经济意义最重要的实木产品。它还在林业 - 森林产业价值链中发挥着至关重要的作用。我们根据粮农组织数据估算了人均软木锯材消费的价格和收入弹性。不同地区的需求模式各不相同。只有国内资源供应很少的国家才具有显着的需求价格弹性，短期相对缺乏弹性，但长期弹性较大。他们的收入弹性也往往最高。为极低收入或极高收入国家的面板获得的弹性估计在统计上并不显着。在五种 SSP（共享社会经济途径）情景下评估了针叶锯材需求增长的潜力。从 2015 年到 2030 年，需求增长从 88 到 154 Mm3 变化很大，但表明市场增长可以在经济收入、碳储存和替代可能性以及副产品对其他传统产品的供应方面为生物经济的形成提供坚实的支持。或新兴产品。