Abstract Changing patterns of land use, temperature, and precipitation are expected to impact ecosystem services, including water quality and quantity, buffering of extreme events, soil quality, and biodiversity. Scenario analyses that link such impacts on ecosystem services to human well-being may be valuable in anticipating potential consequences of change that are meaningful to people living in a community. Ecosystem services provide numerous benefits to community well-being, including living standards, health, cultural fulfillment, education, and connection to nature. Yet assessments of impacts of ecosystem services on human well-being have largely focused on human health or monetary benefits (e.g. market values). This study applies a human well-being modeling framework to demonstrate the potential impacts of alternative land use scenarios on multi-faceted components of human well-being through changes in ecosystem services (i.e., ecological benefits functions). The modeling framework quantitatively defines these relationships in a way that can be used to project the influence of ecosystem service flows on indicators of human well-being, alongside social service flows and economic service flows. Land use changes are linked to changing indicators of ecosystem services through the application of ecological production functions. The approach is demonstrated for two future land use scenarios in a Florida watershed, representing different degrees of population growth and environmental resource protection. Increasing rates of land development were almost universally associated with declines in ecosystem services indicators and associated indicators of well-being, as natural ecosystems were replaced by impervious surfaces that depleted the ability of ecosystems to buffer air pollutants, provide habitat for biodiversity, and retain rainwater. Scenarios with increases in indicators of ecosystem services, however, did not necessarily translate into increases in indicators of well-being, due to covarying changes in social and economic services indicators. The approach is broadly transferable to other communities or decision scenarios and serves to illustrate the potential impacts of changing land use on ecosystem services and human well-being.

中文翻译：

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通过生态系统服务的变化预测土地利用变化对人类福祉的影响

摘要 土地利用、温度和降水的变化模式预计会影响生态系统服务，包括水质和水量、极端事件的缓冲、土壤质量和生物多样性。将生态系统服务的此类影响与人类福祉联系起来的情景分析对于预测对社区居民有意义的变化的潜在后果可能很有价值。生态系统服务为社区福祉带来诸多好处，包括生活水平、健康、文化实现、教育和与自然的联系。然而，生态系统服务对人类福祉影响的评估主要集中在人类健康或货币收益（例如市场价值）上。本研究应用人类福祉建模框架，通过生态系统服务（即生态效益函数）的变化，展示替代土地利用情景对人类福祉多方面组成部分的潜在影响。建模框架以一种可用于预测生态系统服务流对人类福祉指标以及社会服务流和经济服务流的影响的方式定量定义了这些关系。通过生态生产功能的应用，土地利用变化与生态系统服务指标的变化相关联。该方法在佛罗里达流域的两个未来土地利用场景中得到了论证，代表了不同程度的人口增长和环境资源保护。土地开发速度的增加几乎普遍与生态系统服务指标和相关福祉指标的下降有关，因为自然生态系统被不透水的表面所取代，这削弱了生态系统缓冲空气污染物、为生物多样性提供栖息地和保留雨水的能力. 然而，由于社会和经济服务指标的共同变化，生态系统服务指标增加的情景并不一定会转化为福祉指标的增加。该方法可广泛应用于其他社区或决策情景，并有助于说明土地利用变化对生态系统服务和人类福祉的潜在影响。随着自然生态系统被不透水的表面所取代，这些表面耗尽了生态系统缓冲空气污染物、为生物多样性提供栖息地和保留雨水的能力。然而，由于社会和经济服务指标的共同变化，生态系统服务指标增加的情景并不一定会转化为福祉指标的增加。该方法可广泛应用于其他社区或决策情景，并有助于说明土地利用变化对生态系统服务和人类福祉的潜在影响。随着自然生态系统被不透水的表面所取代，这些表面耗尽了生态系统缓冲空气污染物、为生物多样性提供栖息地和保留雨水的能力。然而，由于社会和经济服务指标的共同变化，生态系统服务指标增加的情景并不一定会转化为福祉指标的增加。该方法可广泛应用于其他社区或决策情景，并有助于说明土地利用变化对生态系统服务和人类福祉的潜在影响。由于社会和经济服务指标的共同变化，不一定会转化为福利指标的增加。该方法可广泛应用于其他社区或决策情景，并有助于说明土地利用变化对生态系统服务和人类福祉的潜在影响。由于社会和经济服务指标的共同变化，不一定会转化为福利指标的增加。该方法可广泛应用于其他社区或决策情景，并有助于说明土地利用变化对生态系统服务和人类福祉的潜在影响。