Cupressus atlantica is a narrow endemic species of semi-arid and sub-humid habitats in the western High Atlas, Morocco. We explored the possible dynamics of the species’ range under climatic changes using species distribution modelling (SDM) to identify populations vulnerable to range changes. Additionally, we investigated the spatial genetic structure (SGS), the effective population size and genetic connectivity in natural populations, which may provide important data on demo-genetic processes and support the conservation management of this critically endangered species. The SDM results showed that the current species range constitutes only 49% of the potential distribution. Under the most pessimistic scenarios (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), a significant reduction in the species range was predicted. However, the projection based on RPC4.5 revealed possible extensions of the habitats suitable for C. atlantica. Potentially, these areas could serve as new habitats that could be used with the assisted migration approach aiming to mitigate the current fragmentation. In terms of the SGS, significant and positive aggregation of relatives was detected up to ca. 100 m. In comparison to other fragmented and endemic species, the detected SGS was weak (Sp = 0.0112). The estimated level of recent gene flow was considerable, which likely prevented a strong SGS and allowed diversity to accumulate (H_E = 0.894). The most alarming results concern the effective population size, which was very low in the studied populations (< 53), suggesting a possible increase in inbreeding and loss of diversity in the near future. More effective conservation actions integrating in situ and ex situ measures should be undertaken to prevent extirpation of the species.

柏柏是摩洛哥西部高图集的半干旱和半湿润栖息地的特有物种。我们使用物种分布模型（SDM）探索了气候变化下物种范围的可能动态，以识别易受范围变化影响的种群。此外，我们调查了自然种群的空间遗传结构（SGS），有效种群数量和遗传连通性，这可能会提供关于表观遗传过程的重要数据，并支持这一濒危物种的保护管理。SDM结果表明，当前物种范围仅构成潜在分布的49％。在最悲观的情况下（RCP6.0和RCP8.5），预计物种范围将大大减少。但是，该投影基于RPC4。C. atlanti ca. 这些地区有可能成为新的栖息地，可与旨在减轻当前碎片化的辅助迁移方法一起使用。就SGS而言，直到大约1年，亲属的显着和阳性聚集才被发现。100米 与其他零散的和特有的物种相比，检测到的SGS较弱（Sp  = 0.0112）。据估计，最近的基因流动水平很高，这很可能阻止了SGS的产生，并导致多样性的积累（H _E = 0.894）。最令人震惊的结果涉及有效种群规模，在研究的种群中该种群非常小（<53），表明在不久的将来近亲繁殖和多样性丧失的可能。应该采取更有效的保护措施，将原地和异地措施结合起来，以防止物种灭绝。