Wind and solar energy sources are climate and weather dependent, therefore susceptible to a changing climate. We quantify the impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation under high concentrations of greenhouse gases in Texas. We employ mid-twenty-first century climate projections and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to generate weather variables in the future and produce wind and solar generation time series. We find that mid-twenty-first century projections based on five global climate models agree on the multiyear average increases across Texas in direct normal irradiance, global horizontal irradiance, surface air temperature, and 100-m wind speed of up to 5%, 4%, 10%, and 1%, respectively. These changes lead to multiyear average relative changes across Texas of − 0.6 to + 2.5% and of + 1.3 to + 3.5% in solar and wind capacity factors, respectively, with significant regional, seasonal, and diurnal differences. Areas with low solar resource show an increase in solar capacity factors but reductions in wind capacity factors. Areas with high solar resource show reductions in solar capacity factors. The spatial and temporal differences in our results highlight the importance of using high-resolution data sets to study the potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar power.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对德克萨斯州风能和太阳能发电的潜在影响

风能和太阳能资源依赖于气候和天气，因此容易受到气候变化的影响。我们量化了德克萨斯州高浓度温室气体下气候变化对风能和太阳能发电的影响。我们采用二十一世纪中叶的气候预测和高分辨率数值天气预报模型来生成未来的天气变量并生成风能和太阳能发电时间序列。我们发现，基于 5 个全球气候模型的 21 世纪中叶预测与德克萨斯州的直接法向辐照度、全球水平辐照度、地表气温和 100 米风速的多年平均增幅一致，高达 5%，4 %、10% 和 1%。这些变化导致德克萨斯州多年平均相对变化为 − 0.6 至 + 2.5% 和 + 1.3 至 + 3。太阳能和风能容量因子分别为 5%，具有显着的区域、季节和昼夜差异。太阳能资源低的地区太阳能容量因子增加，但风能因子减少。太阳能资源丰富的地区显示出太阳能容量因素的减少。我们结果中的空间和时间差异凸显了使用高分辨率数据集研究气候变化对风能和太阳能的潜在影响的重要性。