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Examining Prominent Causes of Traffic Injury Severity in Louisiana with Multinomial Logistic Models
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-13 , DOI: 10.1177/0361198120964786
Onyumbe Enumbe B. Lukongo 1
Affiliation  

Accidents rank third among the top 10 leading causes of death in Louisiana, claiming more than 2,000 lives out of a total of almost 33,000 deaths. Drivers’ characteristics (age and gender), the geometry of the roadways, driving on the major roadways, the day of the week, and the wet or dry condition or the road have been associated with crash severity. This study applies unordered multinomial logistic models to investigate causes leading to crash severity in Louisiana. Several models were estimated and the best results were retained for presentation and discussion. Consistent with previous research, findings suggest that drivers’ gender and age matter for traffic safety. Individually, male and older drivers are too risky. Major roads, weekdays, dry surfaces, and road geometry increase the risk of fatal accidents. Male drivers are prone to severe and fatal accidents while old drivers are vulnerable to all types of accidents. Young drivers and female drivers feature among cases of injury and moderate accidents. Evidence suggests that crash severity is not ethnicity specific, contrary to some studies. This study is relevant because it builds a new dataset for safety research, identifies risk factors, and informs the aim of public safety policy to reduce loss of life, injuries, and costs resulting from motor vehicle accidents.



中文翻译:

用多项逻辑模型检验路易斯安那州交通伤害严重性的突出原因

事故在路易斯安那州十大主要死因中排名第三,在将近33,000例死亡中,有2,000例死亡。驾驶员的特征(年龄和性别),道路的几何形状,在主要道路上行驶,一周中的某天以及潮湿或干燥的状况或道路均与碰撞的严重程度相关。这项研究应用无序多项式Lo​​gistic模型来调查导致路易斯安那州崩溃严重程度的原因。估计了几种模型,并保留了最佳结果以供演示和讨论。与先前的研究一致,研究结果表明驾驶员的性别和年龄与交通安全息息相关。个人而言,男性和老年驾驶员风险太大。主要道路,工作日,干燥路面和道路几何形状会增加致命事故的风险。男性驾驶员容易发生严重和致命的事故,而老年驾驶员易受各种事故的影响。在受伤和中度事故中,年轻驾驶员和女性驾驶员为特征。有证据表明,与某些研究相反,撞车的严重程度不是特定种族的。这项研究具有相关性,因为它建立了用于安全研究的新数据集,确定了风险因素,并告知了公共安全政策的目标,以减少因汽车事故而导致的生命损失,伤害和成本。

更新日期:2020-11-13
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