We propose a new approach to mortality prediction under survival energy hypothesis (SEH). We assume that a human is born with initial energy, which changes stochastically in time and the human dies when the energy vanishes. Then, the time of death is represented by the first hitting time of the survival energy (SE) process to zero. This study assumes that SE follows a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process and defines the mortality function, which is the first hitting time distribution function of the SE process. Although SEH is a fictitious construct, we illustrate that this assumption has the potential to yield a good parametric family of cumulative probability of death, and the parametric family yields surprisingly good predictions for future mortality rates.

我们提出了一种在生存能量假设（SEH）下进行死亡率预测的新方法。我们假设一个人出生时具有初始能量，该能量随时间随机变化，并且在能量消失时死亡。然后，死亡时间由生存能量（SE）过程的第一个击中时间表示为零。这项研究假设SE遵循时间非均匀扩散过程，并定义了死亡率函数，这是SE过程的第一个命中时间分布函数。尽管SEH是一个虚拟的结构，但我们说明了这种假设有可能产生一个良好的累积死亡概率参数系列，并且该参数系列出人意料地很好地预测了未来的死亡率。