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The effect of rapid adjustments to halocarbons and N 2 O on radiative forcing
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 8.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-13 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-00150-x
Øivind Hodnebrog , Gunnar Myhre , Ryan J. Kramer , Keith P. Shine , Timothy Andrews , Gregory Faluvegi , Matthew Kasoar , Alf Kirkevåg , Jean-François Lamarque , Johannes Mülmenstädt , Dirk Olivié , Bjørn H. Samset , Drew Shindell , Christopher J. Smith , Toshihiko Takemura , Apostolos Voulgarakis

Rapid adjustments occur after initial perturbation of an external climate driver (e.g., CO2) and involve changes in, e.g. atmospheric temperature, water vapour and clouds, independent of sea surface temperature changes. Knowledge of such adjustments is necessary to estimate effective radiative forcing (ERF), a useful indicator of surface temperature change, and to understand global precipitation changes due to different drivers. Yet, rapid adjustments have not previously been analysed in any detail for certain compounds, including halocarbons and N2O. Here we use several global climate models combined with radiative kernel calculations to show that individual rapid adjustment terms due to CFC-11, CFC-12 and N2O are substantial, but that the resulting flux changes approximately cancel at the top-of-atmosphere due to compensating effects. Our results further indicate that radiative forcing (which includes stratospheric temperature adjustment) is a reasonable approximation for ERF. These CFCs lead to a larger increase in precipitation per kelvin surface temperature change (2.2 ± 0.3% K−1) compared to other well-mixed greenhouse gases (1.4 ± 0.3% K−1 for CO2). This is largely due to rapid upper tropospheric warming and cloud adjustments, which lead to enhanced atmospheric radiative cooling (and hence a precipitation increase) and partly compensate increased atmospheric radiative heating (i.e. which is associated with a precipitation decrease) from the instantaneous perturbation.



中文翻译:

快速调节卤代烃和N 2 O对辐射强迫的影响

快速调节发生在外部气候驱动因素(例如CO 2)的初始扰动之后,并且涉及例如大气温度,水蒸气和云的变化,而与海面温度的变化无关。了解此类调整对于估计有效的辐射强迫(ERF),表面温度变化的有用指标以及了解由不同驱动因素引起的全球降水变化是必要的。但是,以前尚未对某些化合物(包括卤代烃和N 2 O)进行过详细的快速调整分析。在这里,我们使用了几种全球气候模型并结合了辐射核计算,以显示由于CFC-11,CFC- 12和N 2O是很大的,但是由于补偿效应,导致的通量变化在大气顶部大约抵消。我们的结果进一步表明,辐射强迫(包括平流层温度调节)是ERF的合理近似值。与其他充分混合的温室气体(CO 2的1.4±0.3%K -1)相比,这些CFC导致每开尔文表面温度变化的沉淀物增加更大(2.2±0.3%K -1)。这主要是由于对流层上空的快速升温和云的调节,从而导致大气辐射降温增强(因此降水增加),并部分补偿了瞬时扰动引起的大气辐射加热增加(即与降水减少有关)。

更新日期:2020-11-13
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