Abstract Pakistan’s biggest province in terms of area, Baluchistan appears to have been affected from the climate variability since last few decades. No substantive research works have been carried out in analyzing the precipitation variability in Baluchistan and linkage to large-scale teleconnection. The goal of this paper is to determine possible linkages of precipitation with large scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation indices in the months which have shown changes in precipitation trends in Baluchistan. These climate indices may be the possible predictors for the precipitation in Baluchistan in the respective months. Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test was used to identify the monthly significant precipitation trends in thirteen meteorological stations located in four regions of Baluchistan. The noteworthy trend out of significant trends is selected using Theil and Sen’s slope (TS). Decreasing trend is identified in January whereas increasing trend is identified in June mostly in stations located in North Eastern region of Baluchistan (Region1). The changes in the significant trend in January and June under the influence of climate indices are then determined by Partial Mann-Kendall (PMK). Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), correlation technique between Principal Components (PC) of Region1 precipitation and climatic Indices are used to filter out the relevant climatic indices. It is found out that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Equatorial Indian Ocean Zonal Wind Index (EQWIN), ENSO Modoki Index (EMI) on annual scale whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) on decadal scale are influencing the January precipitation. It is also found out that El Nino Southern Oscillation-Multivariate ENSO Index (ENSO-MEI), EMI, NAO, PDO and AMO are influencing the June precipitation. These are the dominating indices explains the precipitation variability in January and June in this Region1. This research will impart awareness in the society from the impact of precipitation trend variability.

中文翻译：

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气候指数对巴基斯坦俾路支省降水变率的影响

摘要 作为巴基斯坦面积最大的省份，俾路支省似乎自过去几十年以来一直受到气候变化的影响。在分析俾路支省的降水变化和与大规模遥相关的联系方面没有进行实质性的研究工作。本文的目的是确定在俾路支省降水趋势变化的月份中，降水与大尺度大气和海洋环流指数之间可能存在的联系。这些气候指数可能是俾路支省各月降水量的可能预测因子。Mann-Kendall (MK) 统计检验用于确定位于俾路支省四个地区的 13 个气象站的每月显着降水趋势。使用泰尔和森斜率 (TS) 选择显着趋势中值得注意的趋势。下降趋势出现在 1 月，而增加趋势出现在 6 月，主要位于俾路支省东北部地区（区域 1）的站点。然后由偏曼肯德尔 (PMK) 确定受气候指数影响的 1 月和 6 月显着趋势的变化。采用经验正交函数（EOF）、主成分分析（PCA）、Region1降水主成分（PC）与气候指数相关技术筛选出相关气候指数。发现北大西洋涛动 (NAO)、赤道印度洋纬向风指数 (EQWIN)、ENSO Modoki 指数 (EMI) 在年度尺度上，而太平洋年代际涛动 (PDO)，十年尺度的大西洋多年代际振荡 (AMO) 正在影响 1 月的降水。还发现厄尔尼诺南方涛动-多元ENSO指数（ENSO-MEI）、EMI、NAO、PDO和AMO对6月降水有影响。这些是解释该地区 1 月和 6 月降水变化的主要指数。这项研究将提高社会对降水趋势变化影响的认识。