Recently, vast tracts of land have been acquired by foreign and domestic–foreign partnerships to satisfy an increasing demand for agricultural products, often resulting in the conversion of forested landscapes into agricultural fields. Those conversions often occur in areas characterized by high slope angles with the potential to cause mass wasting and shallow landslides. An interesting case‐study is the Licungo basin in Mozambique, where from 2000 nearly 160,000 ha of forest were converted, 17% of which occurred in areas acquired through large‐scale land acquisitions (LSLAs). This study analyses the relationship between deforestation occurring within LSLA areas and the likelihood of landslide occurrence. To this end, we use a spatially distributed physically based model that couples the assessment of slope stability with hillslope‐scale hydrological processes and evaluates the change in slope stability associated with remotely sensed forest loss. Relative to conditions where no human modification of land cover has occurred, we find that LSLAs have the potential to increase the extent of areas susceptible to slope failure by as much as 15,000 ha. We also quantified potential direct and indirect implications of such events for the food supply of local populations, estimating that 4,000 people could lose approximately 700 kcal cap⁻¹ d⁻¹ if all LSLAs are put under production. This study demonstrates the linkages between LSLAs, slope instability, and knock‐on environmental and societal impacts. Governments should therefore take such impacts into account (in addition to those related to habitat destruction and carbon emissions) when issuing permits and concessions within forested lands.

中文翻译：

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大规模征地是边坡失稳的潜在驱动力

近年来，外国和国内外的伙伴关系已经获得了大片土地，以满足对农产品日益增长的需求，这常常导致森林景观转化为农田。这些转换通常发生在以高倾斜角为特征的地区，有可能导致大量浪费和浅层滑坡。有趣的案例研究是莫桑比克的Licungo盆地，从2000年开始，那里有将近160,000公顷的森林被转化，其中17％发生在通过大规模土地收购（LSLA）获得的地区。这项研究分析了LSLA地区内发生的森林砍伐与发生滑坡的可能性之间的关系。为此，我们使用基于空间分布的物理模型，将边坡稳定性的评估与坡面规模的水文过程相结合，并评估与遥感森林流失相关的边坡稳定性的变化。相对于没有人为改变土地覆盖的情况，我们发现LSLA有可能将易发生边坡破坏的区域范围扩大多达15,000公顷。我们还量化了此类事件对当地人口食物供应的潜在直接和间接影响，估计有4,000人可能损失约700大卡的上限 我们发现LSLA有可能将易受边坡破坏影响的区域范围扩大15,000公顷。我们还量化了此类事件对当地人口食物供应的潜在直接和间接影响，估计有4,000人可能损失约700大卡的上限 我们发现LSLA有可能将易受边坡破坏影响的区域范围扩大15,000公顷。我们还量化了此类事件对当地人口食物供应的潜在直接和间接影响，估计有4,000人可能损失约700大卡的上限^-1  d ^-1-如果所有LSLA都投入生产。这项研究表明了LSLA，边坡失稳以及对环境和社会的影响之间的联系。因此，政府在发放林地内的许可证和特许权时，除了与栖息地破坏和碳排放有关的影响外，还应考虑到此类影响。