Abstract The uncertainty of customer preference is one of major sources of product family design risk. Since the prediction of customer preference entails forecasting and estimation error, the uncertainty is inevitable. The present study proposes the novel method for module-based product family design, product option strategy. Product option strategy provides the launch flexibility to companies. The firm has the right to release a maximum-utility product alternative among the product option set, corresponding to actual customer preference. Launch flexibility saves commercialization cost resulting from ineffective product launch and enhances market share by possessing diverse product alternatives. The strategy is implemented by the two-stage decision model with heuristic algorithm. The structure of decision model accommodates the request of consumer electronic industry on logical decision mechanism to persuade internal stakeholders. The decision model strikes the balance between development goals of main internal stakeholders, market effectiveness and operational efficiency. The proposed strategy is applied to product family design of LCD TV. In the case study, the proposed method achieves higher market share with the same or less operational complexity (cost) but the advantage might be limited under complex product architecture. In the future, operational cost model will be elaborated for the equivalent comparison between market share and operational cost.

中文翻译：

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以发布灵活性管理产品系列设计中客户偏好不确定性引起的市场风险：产品选择策略

摘要 顾客偏好的不确定性是产品族设计风险的主要来源之一。由于客户偏好的预测需要预测和估计误差，因此不确定性是不可避免的。本研究提出了基于模块的产品系列设计、产品选择策略的新方法。产品选择策略为公司提供了启动灵活性。公司有权根据客户的实际偏好在产品选项集中发布最大效用的产品替代品。推出灵活性节省了因产品推出无效而导致的商业化成本，并通过拥有多样化的产品替代品来提高市场份额。该策略由启发式算法的两阶段决策模型实现。决策模型的结构适应了消费电子行业对说服内部利益相关者的逻辑决策机制的要求。决策模型在主要内部利益相关者的发展目标、市场有效性和运营效率之间取得平衡。所提出的策略应用于液晶电视的产品系列设计。在案例研究中，所提出的方法以相同或更低的操作复杂性（成本）实现了更高的市场份额，但在复杂的产品架构下，优势可能会受到限制。未来将详细阐述运营成本模型，对市场份额和运营成本进行等效比较。决策模型在主要内部利益相关者的发展目标、市场有效性和运营效率之间取得平衡。所提出的策略应用于液晶电视的产品系列设计。在案例研究中，所提出的方法以相同或更低的操作复杂性（成本）实现了更高的市场份额，但在复杂的产品架构下，优势可能会受到限制。未来将详细阐述运营成本模型，对市场份额和运营成本进行等效比较。决策模型在主要内部利益相关者的发展目标、市场有效性和运营效率之间取得平衡。所提出的策略应用于液晶电视的产品系列设计。在案例研究中，所提出的方法以相同或更低的操作复杂性（成本）实现了更高的市场份额，但在复杂的产品架构下，优势可能会受到限制。未来将详细阐述运营成本模型，对市场份额和运营成本进行等效比较。