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Seasonal temperature and rainfall extremes 1911–2017 for Northern Australian population centres: challenges for human activity
Regional Environmental Change ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-13 , DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01706-6
Clement J. Davis , Elizabeth G. Hanna

More than 40% of the human population reside in global tropical zones despite the extreme climates that frequently approach the upper thermotolerance levels for human physical activity and societal flourishing. Many of these regions also regularly subject resident populations to extreme weather events. Australia’s tropical regions experience exceptionally high climatic variability, making it one of the world’s most challenging for human settlements. Adaptation planning, project management and health protection agencies working at local scales require localized analysis on long-term climatic trends and projections. Utility of existing large-scale analyses is constrained by climatic heterogeneity across expansive national scales. Here we track historical changes in seasonal climatic extremes for seven key population centres across Australia’s north between the periods 1911–1940 and 1988–2017 as measured against the 1961–1990 period. Shifts in daily minimum temperature (20 °C or more), maximum temperature (10th, 90th and 95th percentiles), trends in heatwaves (5 days or longer) and in 1- and 3-day heavy rainfall events (95th and 98th percentiles) are provided. Results indicate the greatest warming has occurred during the Dry season and in coastal locations. Rainfall extremes demonstrate a pattern of marked spatial non-uniformity. This location-centred approach to identifying shifts in climatic extremes has wide applicability for adaptation planning across diverse global climatic regions.



中文翻译:

1911-2017年澳大利亚北部人口中心的季节性极端温度和降雨:人类活动面临的挑战

尽管极端气候经常接近人类身体活动和社会繁荣的最高耐热水平,但仍有40%以上的人口居住在全球热带地区。这些地区中的许多地区还经常使居民受到极端天气事件的影响。澳大利亚的热带地区气候异常多变,使其成为世界上人类住区最具挑战性的地区之一。在地方范围内开展工作的适应计划,项目管理和健康保护机构需要对长期气候趋势和预测进行本地化分析。现有的大规模分析的实用性受到整个国家范围内气候异质性的限制。在这里,我们追踪了1911–1940年和1988–2017年之间澳大利亚北部七个主要人口中心的季节性气候极端事件的历史变化,以1961–1990年为基准。每日最低温度(20°C或更高),最高温度(第10、90和95%百分位),热浪趋势(5天或更长时间)和1天和3天强降雨事件(95%和98%百分位)的变化提供。结果表明,最大的变暖发生在旱季和沿海地区。极端降雨表明空间明显不均匀。这种以位置为中心的方法来识别气候极端变化,在跨全球不同气候区域的适应计划中具有广泛的适用性。每日最低温度(20°C或更高),最高温度(第10、90和95%百分位),热浪趋势(5天或更长时间)和1天和3天强降雨事件(95%和98%百分位)的变化提供。结果表明,最大的变暖发生在旱季和沿海地区。极端降雨表明空间明显不均匀。这种以位置为中心的方法来识别气候极端变化,在跨全球不同气候区域的适应计划中具有广泛的适用性。每日最低温度(20°C或更高),最高温度(第10、90和95%百分位),热浪趋势(5天或更长时间)和1天和3天强降雨事件(95%和98%百分位)的变化提供。结果表明,最大的变暖发生在旱季和沿海地区。极端降雨表明空间明显不均匀。这种以位置为中心的方法来识别气候极端变化,在跨全球不同气候区域的适应计划中具有广泛的适用性。结果表明,最大的变暖发生在旱季和沿海地区。极端降雨表明空间明显不均匀。这种以位置为中心的方法来识别气候极端变化,在跨全球不同气候区域的适应计划中具有广泛的适用性。结果表明,最大的变暖发生在旱季和沿海地区。极端降雨表明空间明显不均匀。这种以位置为中心的方法来识别气候极端变化,在跨全球不同气候区域的适应计划中具有广泛的适用性。

更新日期:2020-11-13
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