The dynamic relationships between climate change and armed conflict have been discussed at length, but there have been few studies that integrate dimensions of climate adaptation into the processes linking climate change to armed conflict. By using geospatial grids for climate change and armed conflict, and country-level climate vulnerability measures of sensitivity and adaptive capacity, we empirically examine the effects of climatic and non-climatic conditions on the probability of armed conflict in Africa. Results suggest that there are close links between climate drivers and armed conflict. Importantly, greater levels of adaptive capacity lead to a lower likelihood of armed conflict. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that enhancing adaptive capacity under conditions of climate pressure will reduce the probability of people taking up arms in response to water scarcity.

气候变化与武装冲突之间的动态关系已经进行了详尽的讨论，但是很少有研究将气候适应的维度整合到将气候变化与武装冲突联系起来的过程中。通过使用用于气候变化和武装冲突的地理空间网格，以及敏感性和适应能力的国家级气候脆弱性度量，我们经验性地考察了气候和非气候条件对非洲武装冲突可能性的影响。结果表明，气候驱动因素与武装冲突之间有着密切的联系。重要的是，适应能力的提高导致武装冲突的可能性降低。从政策角度来看，