Invasive species have large economic and ecological impacts and are the leading driver of extinction for both plants and animals worldwide. In the USA, coral reefs, which provide $3.4 billion per year in ecosystem services, are impacted by invasive marine species. One such species is Tubastraea coccinea, which was the first scleractinia to invade the western Atlantic and recently has spread to natural reefs within the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM). We document this recent invasion by compiling occurrence records, develop a species distribution model identifying important determinants of invasion, and project potential range expansion. Our results indicate T. coccinea currently is distributed along the GoM coast from the Florida Keys to southern Texas, with documented localities clustered ≈ 100 km off the Louisiana coast and ≈ 200 km off the Texas coast, and sparsely distributed elsewhere. Our species distribution model identified five environmental factors that together contribute > 99% to the overall model. These factors include two surface variables (mean pH and mean calcite, contributing ≈ 40%) and three benthic variables (maximum current velocity, minimum iron, and minimum dissolved oxygen, contributing ≈ 60%). Our model suggests potential habitat for range expansion is distributed mainly within the western portion of the northern GoM, with the highest probabilities of occurrence (0.8 < P < 1.0) clustered along the Texas and Louisiana coasts between 88 and 97° W (near the border between states).

外来入侵物种具有巨大的经济和生态影响，并且是全球动植物灭绝的主要原因。在美国，每年提供34亿美元的生态系统服务的珊瑚礁受到海洋入侵物种的影响。Tubastraea coccinea是这样的一个物种，它是第一个入侵西大西洋的巩膜藻，最近已经传播到墨西哥湾北部（GoM）内的天然珊瑚礁。我们通过汇编发生记录来记录这次最近的入侵，开发一种物种分布模型，确定入侵的重要决定因素，并预测潜在范围的扩大。我们的结果表明T. coccinea目前分布在从佛罗里达礁岛到得克萨斯州南部的GoM沿海地区，有据可查的地区聚集在距路易斯安那海岸约100公里和距德克萨斯海岸约200公里的地方，很少分布在其他地方。我们的物种分布模型确定了五个环境因素，这五个因素共同构成了整个模型的99％以上。这些因素包括两个表面变量（平均pH和平均方解石，贡献约40％）和三个底栖变量（最大流速，最小铁和最小溶解氧，贡献约60％）。我们的模型表明，范围扩展的潜在栖息地主要分布在北印度洋北部，发生概率最高（0.8 <  P <1.0）聚集在德克萨斯州和路易斯安那州西海岸之间88至97°W（各州之间的边界附近）。