COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is rapidly spreading in South Asian countries, especially in India. India is the fourth most COVID-19 affected country at present i.e., until July 10, 2020. With limited medical facilities and high transmission rate, the study of COVID-19 progression and its subsequent trajectory needs to be analyzed in India. Epidemiologic mathematical models have the potential to predict the epidemic peak of COVID-19 under different scenarios. Lockdown is one of the most effective mitigation policies adopted worldwide to control the transmission rate of COVID-19 cases. In this study, we use an improvised five compartment mathematical model, i.e., Susceptible (S)-Exposed (E)-Infected (I)-Recovered (R)-Death (D) (SEIRD) to investigate the progression of COVID-19 and predict the epidemic peak under the impact of lockdown in India. The aim of this study is to provide a more precise prediction of epidemic peak and to evaluate the impact of lockdown on epidemic peak shift in India. For this purpose, we examine the most recent data (from January 30, 2020 to July 10, 2020 i.e., 160 days) to enhance the accuracy of outcomes obtained from the proposed model. The model predicts that the total number of COVID-19 active cases would be around 5.8 × 10⁵ on August 15, 2020 under current circumstances. In addition, our study indicates the existence of under-reported cases i.e., 10⁵ during the post-lockdown period in India. Consequently, this study suggests that a nationwide public lockdown would lead to epidemic peak suppression in India. It is expected that the obtained results would be beneficial for determining further COVID-19 mitigation policies not only in India but globally as well.

COVID-19（SARS-CoV-2）在南亚国家，尤其是印度，正在迅速传播。目前，印度是受COVID-19影响第四大的国家，即到2020年7月10日。由于医疗设施有限且传播率高，印度需要对COVID-19进程及其后续轨迹的研究进行分析。流行病学数学模型具有预测不同情况下COVID-19流行高峰的潜力。锁定是世界范围内用来控制COVID-19案件的传输率的最有效的缓解政策之一。在这项研究中，我们使用一个简易的五格数学模型，即易感（S），暴露（E），感染（I），恢复（R），死亡（D）（SEIRD）来研究COVID-19的进程并预测印度受封锁影响的疫情高峰。这项研究的目的是提供更准确的流行病高峰预测，并评估锁定对印度流行病高峰变化的影响。为此，我们检查了最新数据（从2020年1月30日到2020年7月10日，即160天），以提高从建议的模型获得的结果的准确性。该模型预测，COVID-19活跃病例的总数约为5.8×10根据目前的情况，将于2020年8月15日执行第⁵轮。此外，我们的研究表明，在印度锁定后时期，存在报告不足的案例，即10 ⁵。因此，这项研究表明，全国范围内的公共禁闭将导致印度的流行高峰受到抑制。预期获得的结果将不仅对印度而且对全球确定进一步的COVID-19缓解政策都将是有益的。