Abstract Species occurrence and distribution have already been directly affected by climate change, a scenario that is likely to be accentuated as the temperature rise is expected to exceed 2 °C by 2100. Owing to climate change, organisms are forced to migrate or adapt to new climatic conditions, and if they fail to do so, they are at risk of declining and becoming extinct. However, some species are adapted to overcome and even benefit from these new conditions, increasing their occurrence area or even their abundance. Using Bayesian Species Distribution Models (B-SDMs), we evaluated the current distribution of two halfbeak fishes, Hyporhamphus unifasciatus and Hemiramphus brasiliensis, and the effect of climate changes predicted for 2050 and 2100 on the distribution of these populations in coastal waters of the Americas. We used species occurrence data from bibliographical sources and online databases. One biotic (net primary production - NPP) and four abiotic variables (sea surface temperature - SST), sea surface salinity - SSS), depth, and sea bottom rugosity) were used as potential predictors of species distribution. Results indicated that both species are more likely found in shallower, warmer, and saltier waters. Model prediction suggests that they will probably benefit from climate change, with potential increase in their occurrence area in coastal regions of the Americas, especially due to temperature rise and increased salinity.

中文翻译：

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损害还是利益？未来气候变化情景可能如何影响美洲沿海小型中上层鱼类的分布

摘要 物种的发生和分布已经直接受到气候变化的影响，随着预计到 2100 年气温升高超过 2°C，这种情况可能会加剧。由于气候变化，生物被迫迁移或适应新的环境。气候条件，如果它们不这样做，它们将面临衰退和灭绝的风险。然而，一些物种适应了这些新条件，甚至从这些新条件中受益，增加了它们的出现面积甚至它们的丰度。我们使用贝叶斯物种分布模型 (B-SDM) 评估了两种半喙鱼（Hyporhamphus unifasciatus 和 Hemiramphus brasiliensis）的当前分布，以及预测的 2050 年和 2100 年气候变化对美洲沿海水域这些种群分布的影响. 我们使用了来自书目来源和在线数据库的物种发生数据。一个生物（净初级生产 - NPP）和四个非生物变量（海面温度 - SST）、海面盐度 - SSS）、深度和海底起伏）被用作物种分布的潜在预测因子。结果表明，这两种物种更有可能在较浅、较温暖和较咸的水域中发现。模型预测表明，它们可能会受益于气候变化，它们在美洲沿海地区的发生面积可能会增加，特别是由于温度升高和盐度增加。和海底粗糙度）被用作物种分布的潜在预测因子。结果表明，这两种物种更有可能在较浅、较温暖和较咸的水域中发现。模型预测表明，它们可能会受益于气候变化，它们在美洲沿海地区的发生面积可能会增加，特别是由于温度升高和盐度增加。和海底粗糙度）被用作物种分布的潜在预测因子。结果表明，这两种物种更有可能在较浅、较温暖和较咸的水域中发现。模型预测表明，它们可能会受益于气候变化，它们在美洲沿海地区的发生面积可能会增加，特别是由于温度升高和盐度增加。